Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.51
- Without margin
- 61.60%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -16.60 pp
Major League Soccer · 11 Oct 2026
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles GalaxyMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 6–2 · regulation time
Result record v3 · recorded 13 Oct 2026 05:21 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 23:08 UTC.
Result changes (2)
- v1 · NS Initial source observation · 11 Oct 2026 23:40 UTC Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC
- v2 · 2H Source status, score or kickoff changed · 12 Oct 2026 09:30 UTC Source synced 12 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC
- v3 · FT · 6–2 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 13 Oct 2026 05:21 UTC Source synced 12 Oct 2026 23:08 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v3. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 10 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC; synced 10 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 04:41 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.7
- Without margin
- 19.79%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +25.21 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 5
- Without margin
- 18.60%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -8.60 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.50%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
St. Louis City
WWDWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 13 / 8
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
St. Louis City scored 13 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 3–3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
Los Angeles Galaxy
WLLDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 6 / 11
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Los Angeles Galaxy scored 6 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Minnesota United FC 2–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Diego 3–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- CF Montreal 2–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Houston Dynamo 1–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
St. Louis City
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.25 / 2.32
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.13 / 1.16
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- St. Louis City vs Toronto FC xG for / against St. Louis City: 2.54 / 1.08 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC.
- St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake xG for / against St. Louis City: 1.71 / 1.24 Statistics synced: team 02 Aug 2026 04:21 UTC; opponent 02 Aug 2026 04:21 UTC.
Away matches
Los Angeles Galaxy
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.50 / 4.29
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.25 / 2.15
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy xG for / against Los Angeles Galaxy: 1.59 / 1.88 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:36 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:36 UTC.
- San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy xG for / against Los Angeles Galaxy: 0.91 / 2.41 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 06:18 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 06:18 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
St. Louis City
Reported absences
- Celio PompeuMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
- K. HiebertMissing Fixture · Hip Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Reported absences
- R. PuigMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
- H. LozanoMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
- Joao KlaussQuestionable · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
St. Louis City
11 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 30 Sep 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 2
- Points / played
- 47 / 27
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 04:20 UTC.
Los Angeles Galaxy
14.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 02:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 9
- Points / played
- 36 / 28
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 04:20 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Los Angeles Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- St. Louis City 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 04:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490525
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- e7abd09b372c8a13ebfbf209059aacded309f359e4fc448c8cb9a92b25743e81