Major League Soccer · 14 Oct 2026

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–3 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 16 Oct 2026 07:51 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:37 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 15 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 01:40 UTC · source kickoff 14 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 3–3 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 16 Oct 2026 07:51 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:37 UTC · source kickoff 14 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Draw. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 13 Oct 2026 23:44 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 13 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 13 Oct 2026 23:44 UTC. Saved 14 Oct 2026 00:51 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.21
Without margin
42.08%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-32.08 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.84
Without margin
24.22%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+20.78 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.76
Without margin
33.70%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+11.30 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.52%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Toronto FC

WWDDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Toronto FC scored 12 and conceded 10 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Toronto FC 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  3. Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer · UTC
  4. Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. Toronto FC 3–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer · UTC

Away matches

Orlando City SC

LLLWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 15
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Orlando City SC scored 11 and conceded 15 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Philadelphia Union 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  3. Columbus Crew 2–1 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup · UTC
  4. Atlanta United FC 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. Minnesota United FC 3–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Toronto FC

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.65 / 1.55
xG per match, for / against
1.65 / 1.55
Goals on this same sample
2 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Toronto FC vs CF Montreal xG for / against Toronto FC: 1.65 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 12 Oct 2026 07:46 UTC; opponent 12 Oct 2026 07:46 UTC.

Away matches

Orlando City SC

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.53 / 8.31
xG per match, for / against
1.18 / 2.77
Goals on this same sample
7 / 11

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC xG for / against Orlando City SC: 1.10 / 2.93 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:18 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:18 UTC.
  2. New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC xG for / against Orlando City SC: 1.34 / 1.74 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC.
  3. Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC xG for / against Orlando City SC: 1.09 / 3.64 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Toronto FC

Reported absences

  • W. ZimmermanMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 14 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • N. PalacioMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 14 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Orlando City SC

Reported absences

  • B. OjedaMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 14 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • T. SpicerMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 14 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Toronto FC

4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eastern Conference
Position 11
Points / played
32 / 28

Table source synced 14 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Orlando City SC

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eastern Conference
Position 7
Points / played
37 / 28

Table source synced 14 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  3. Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  4. Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 14 Oct 2026 00:51 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1490529
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
75468408c75a0f5f231b3f3415f4e955204a910add7c31fc1bdb94eccfb2a75c