Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.86
- Without margin
- 50.03%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -40.03 pp
Major League Soccer · 15 Oct 2026
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose EarthquakesMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–1 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 15 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 09:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Draw. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:50 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.88
- Without margin
- 23.98%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +21.02 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 3.58
- Without margin
- 25.99%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +19.01 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.47%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Real Salt Lake
WLLDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 8 / 11
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Real Salt Lake scored 8 and conceded 11 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Real Salt Lake 3–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 0–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 0–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 3–4 FC DallasMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
San Jose Earthquakes
DWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 5
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 1/5 20%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
San Jose Earthquakes scored 5 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Diego 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Austin 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Real Salt Lake
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 3.92 / 4.44
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.31 / 1.48
- Goals on this same sample
- 3 / 9
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps xG for / against Real Salt Lake: 1.16 / 2.21 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC.
- Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC xG for / against Real Salt Lake: 1.09 / 0.51 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 01:20 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 01:20 UTC.
- Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas xG for / against Real Salt Lake: 1.67 / 1.72 Statistics synced: team 20 Aug 2026 03:52 UTC; opponent 20 Aug 2026 03:52 UTC.
Away matches
San Jose Earthquakes
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.27 / 3.16
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.42 / 1.05
- Goals on this same sample
- 1 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes xG for / against San Jose Earthquakes: 0.72 / 1.07 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 17:25 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 17:25 UTC.
- Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes xG for / against San Jose Earthquakes: 1.20 / 0.72 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 04:18 UTC.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes xG for / against San Jose Earthquakes: 2.35 / 1.37 Statistics synced: team 20 Aug 2026 04:42 UTC; opponent 20 Aug 2026 04:42 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Real Salt Lake
Reported absences
- L. EngelMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- J. GladMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- D. LunaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- G. DillonQuestionable · Foot Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- J. J. AriasMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- E. EneliMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
San Jose Earthquakes
Reported absences
- J. A. Gonzalez MendozaMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- D. JonesMissing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- D. JohnsonMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- J. SkahanMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- B. KikanovicMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- N. TsakirisMissing Fixture · Upper-Body Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- N. AdimabuaMissing Fixture · Hernia Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Real Salt Lake
4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 11
- Points / played
- 32 / 28
Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.
San Jose Earthquakes
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 01:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 4
- Points / played
- 46 / 28
Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:50 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490537
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 914b1d1f9493473756a7ea7896ab15a3e01199b82c20a42916d71e304e4b8113