Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.47
- Without margin
- 63.30%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -18.30 pp
Major League Soccer · 01 Nov 2026
Nashville SC vs New York Red BullsMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Awaiting confirmed result.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 31 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC. Saved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.6
- Without margin
- 20.23%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +24.77 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 5.65
- Without margin
- 16.47%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -6.47 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.47%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Nashville SC
DWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 13 / 0
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 0/5 0%
Nashville SC scored 13 and conceded 0 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 0 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Nashville SC 0–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
New York Red Bulls
LLWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
New York Red Bulls scored 5 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- New England Revolution 3–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York City FC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Nashville SC
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 9.17 / 4.37
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.29 / 1.09
- Goals on this same sample
- 11 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union xG for / against Nashville SC: 0.83 / 1.02 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 00:55 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 00:55 UTC.
- Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City xG for / against Nashville SC: 4.23 / 0.63 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:16 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:16 UTC.
- Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire xG for / against Nashville SC: 2.07 / 0.96 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC.
- Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati xG for / against Nashville SC: 2.04 / 1.76 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC.
Away matches
New York Red Bulls
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 6.62 / 5.49
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.21 / 1.83
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 2.47 / 1.96 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 2.75 / 1.23 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC.
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 1.40 / 2.30 Statistics synced: team 02 Oct 2026 23:38 UTC; opponent 02 Oct 2026 23:38 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Nashville SC
Reported absences
- O. PresthusMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
- F. CamaraQuestionable · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
New York Red Bulls
Reported absences
- D. NealisMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 01 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
- J. CheMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
- R. DonkorMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 01 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Nashville SC
3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 1
- Points / played
- 71 / 32
Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 04:19 UTC.
New York Red Bulls
3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 10
- Points / played
- 39 / 32
Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 04:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490586
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 0082856e4287e20fa05aea6c220084ab55a9d7451cd36eee8250fbdb0eb8370f