Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.81
- Without margin
- 51.39%
- Provider estimate
- N/A
- Provider − market
- N/A
Major League Soccer · 31 Oct 2026
St. Louis City vs San DiegoMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 01 Nov 2026 07:50 UTC. Source synced 31 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- N/A
- Draw
- N/A
- Away win
- N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 29 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 30 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC; synced 30 Oct 2026 21:38 UTC. Saved 31 Oct 2026 06:11 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.25
- Without margin
- 21.89%
- Provider estimate
- N/A
- Provider − market
- N/A
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 3.48
- Without margin
- 26.73%
- Provider estimate
- N/A
- Provider − market
- N/A
Raw implied probability total: 107.51%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
St. Louis City
LDWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 15 / 8
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
St. Louis City scored 15 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- St. Louis City 2–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
San Diego
LDLDD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 9 / 15
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 5/5 100%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
San Diego scored 9 and conceded 15 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 4–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Austin 3–3 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Inter Miami 2–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
St. Louis City
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 7.96 / 5.23
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.99 / 1.31
- Goals on this same sample
- 11 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers xG for / against St. Louis City: 1.98 / 1.20 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 00:55 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 00:55 UTC.
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps xG for / against St. Louis City: 0.83 / 0.99 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:16 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:16 UTC.
- St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy xG for / against St. Louis City: 2.61 / 1.96 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 22:34 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 22:34 UTC.
- St. Louis City vs Toronto FC xG for / against St. Louis City: 2.54 / 1.08 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC.
Away matches
San Diego
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 8.51 / 9.12
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.13 / 2.28
- Goals on this same sample
- 6 / 12
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego xG for / against San Diego: 2.54 / 2.88 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego xG for / against San Diego: 2.07 / 0.55 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 11:15 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 11:15 UTC.
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego xG for / against San Diego: 2.12 / 4.16 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC.
- Inter Miami vs San Diego xG for / against San Diego: 1.78 / 1.53 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:55 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:55 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
St. Louis City
Reported absences
- R. BurkiMissing Fixture · Concussion Record synced 31 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
- A. MatanMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 31 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
- Celio PompeuMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 31 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
San Diego
Reported absences
- E. AchouriMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 31 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
St. Louis City
2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 3
- Points / played
- 51 / 32
Table source synced 31 Oct 2026 05:18 UTC.
San Diego
2.7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 13
- Points / played
- 35 / 32
Table source synced 31 Oct 2026 05:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- San Diego 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Diego 0–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 31 Oct 2026 06:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490595
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- ec871ccc7a57b95abea3f65d8694c140485e8de553c00b91b9b0159287f64485