Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.75
- Without margin
- 53.23%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -43.23 pp
Major League Soccer · 02 Nov 2026
Portland Timbers vs Houston DynamoMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Awaiting confirmed result.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 01 Nov 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 02 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC. Saved 02 Nov 2026 00:40 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.92
- Without margin
- 23.76%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +21.24 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 4.05
- Without margin
- 23.00%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +22.00 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.34%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Portland Timbers
WDLDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 10 / 9
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Portland Timbers scored 10 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Portland Timbers 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 5–4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
Houston Dynamo
WDDLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 6 / 6
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Houston Dynamo scored 6 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Seattle Sounders 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Diego 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Charlotte 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Portland Timbers
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 5.89 / 2.57
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.96 / 0.86
- Goals on this same sample
- 3 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Portland Timbers vs Charlotte xG for / against Portland Timbers: 3.70 / 0.83 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 05:25 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 05:25 UTC.
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids xG for / against Portland Timbers: 0.66 / 1.01 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 11:15 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 11:15 UTC.
- Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC xG for / against Portland Timbers: 1.53 / 0.73 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 17:14 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 17:14 UTC.
Away matches
Houston Dynamo
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 3.74 / 7.45
- xG per match, for / against
- 0.94 / 1.86
- Goals on this same sample
- 6 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo xG for / against Houston Dynamo: 0.36 / 1.92 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC.
- San Diego vs Houston Dynamo xG for / against Houston Dynamo: 0.78 / 2.85 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC.
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo xG for / against Houston Dynamo: 1.58 / 1.30 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:34 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:34 UTC.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo xG for / against Houston Dynamo: 1.02 / 1.38 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 01:29 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 01:29 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Portland Timbers
Reported absences
- K. MillerMissing Fixture · Red Card Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- B. ByeMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- T. MuseMissing Fixture · Concussion Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- AntonyQuestionable · Knee Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- J. MosqueraMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- Z. McGrawMissing Fixture · Back Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- A. BonetigMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Houston Dynamo
Reported absences
- H. HerreraQuestionable · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- M. SaracchiMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- GuilhermeQuestionable · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- J. MaurerMissing Fixture · Back Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
- Felipe AndradeQuestionable · Hamstring Injury Record synced 02 Nov 2026 00:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Portland Timbers
4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 11
- Points / played
- 40 / 32
Table source synced 02 Nov 2026 00:19 UTC.
Houston Dynamo
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Western Conference
- Position 5
- Points / played
- 51 / 32
Table source synced 02 Nov 2026 00:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Portland Timbers 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 02 Nov 2026 00:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490599
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 3de473d4ecd26d2b429575de129418364cdff90b51736628c760394fa18632fc