Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.42
- Without margin
- 65.46%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -20.46 pp
Major League Soccer · 07 Nov 2026
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FCMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 06 Nov 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Saved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.95
- Without margin
- 18.78%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +26.22 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 5.9
- Without margin
- 15.76%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -5.76 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.57%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Philadelphia Union
LDWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 14 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 5/5 100%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
Philadelphia Union scored 14 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 2–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
Toronto FC
LWLLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 12
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Toronto FC scored 5 and conceded 12 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Philadelphia Union
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 10.09 / 5.72
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.52 / 1.43
- Goals on this same sample
- 9 / 7
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution xG for / against Philadelphia Union: 2.62 / 2.30 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC.
- Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte xG for / against Philadelphia Union: 2.57 / 1.56 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 09:34 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 09:34 UTC.
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake xG for / against Philadelphia Union: 1.97 / 0.76 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC.
- Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC xG for / against Philadelphia Union: 2.93 / 1.10 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:18 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:18 UTC.
Away matches
Toronto FC
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.02 / 5.74
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.34 / 1.91
- Goals on this same sample
- 5 / 7
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC xG for / against Toronto FC: 2.34 / 2.26 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:24 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:24 UTC.
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC xG for / against Toronto FC: 0.60 / 0.94 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC.
- St. Louis City vs Toronto FC xG for / against Toronto FC: 1.08 / 2.54 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Philadelphia Union
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Toronto FC
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Philadelphia Union
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 6
- Points / played
- 47 / 33
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.
Toronto FC
9.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 12
- Points / played
- 39 / 33
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Toronto FC 3–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Toronto FC 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Philadelphia Union 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490602
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 780e5866e0beacf1569ccf45de7b96aaf9955680f04be5800321caa88c95897a