Major League Soccer · 07 Nov 2026

New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 06 Nov 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Saved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.84
Without margin
50.57%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-40.57 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.1
Without margin
22.69%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+22.31 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.48
Without margin
26.74%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+18.26 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.47%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

New York Red Bulls

WLWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

New York Red Bulls scored 7 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. New York Red Bulls 2–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  3. New York Red Bulls 4–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer · UTC
  4. New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. New York Red Bulls 1–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer · UTC

Away matches

Atlanta United FC

LWWDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Atlanta United FC scored 7 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. New York City FC 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  3. Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  4. DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. Inter Miami 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

New York Red Bulls

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
8.41 / 3.53
xG per match, for / against
2.80 / 1.18
Goals on this same sample
6 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 3.31 / 0.81 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC.
  2. New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 0.94 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:35 UTC.
  3. New York Red Bulls vs San Diego xG for / against New York Red Bulls: 4.16 / 2.12 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:24 UTC.

Away matches

Atlanta United FC

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.03 / 3.32
xG per match, for / against
1.68 / 1.11
Goals on this same sample
5 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC xG for / against Atlanta United FC: 2.22 / 1.20 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 13:55 UTC.
  2. CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC xG for / against Atlanta United FC: 2.08 / 0.59 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC.
  3. Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC xG for / against Atlanta United FC: 0.73 / 1.53 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 17:14 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 17:14 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

New York Red Bulls

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Atlanta United FC

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

New York Red Bulls

9.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eastern Conference
Position 10
Points / played
39 / 33

Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.

Atlanta United FC

9.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eastern Conference
Position 13
Points / played
33 / 33

Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
  2. Atlanta United FC 3–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  3. New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
  4. Atlanta United FC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
  5. Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1490603
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
73e385696e1756c0d1a16d1762450c74526626563d32751cf6dd2bc4dfc7e6fa