Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.92
- Without margin
- 31.85%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -21.85 pp
Major League Soccer · 07 Nov 2026
DC United vs New York City FCMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 06 Nov 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 06 Nov 2026 21:17 UTC. Saved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.54
- Without margin
- 26.27%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +18.73 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.22
- Without margin
- 41.89%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +3.11 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.54%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
DC United
LWLLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 3 / 6
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
DC United scored 3 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- DC United 0–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 0–1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs · UTC
- DC United 1–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
Away matches
New York City FC
DLLDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 7 / 8
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
New York City FC scored 7 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Orlando City SC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- Real Salt Lake 0–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
DC United
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.84 / 4.80
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.61 / 1.60
- Goals on this same sample
- 3 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- DC United vs FC Cincinnati xG for / against DC United: 0.76 / 1.15 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC.
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls xG for / against DC United: 1.23 / 2.75 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC.
- DC United vs Charlotte xG for / against DC United: 2.85 / 0.90 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC.
Away matches
New York City FC
Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 5.99 / 6.04
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.20 / 1.21
- Goals on this same sample
- 7 / 8
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Orlando City SC vs New York City FC xG for / against New York City FC: 1.71 / 0.68 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 14:25 UTC.
- Inter Miami vs New York City FC xG for / against New York City FC: 1.47 / 2.23 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC.
- Chicago Fire vs New York City FC xG for / against New York City FC: 1.50 / 1.09 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 08:15 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 08:15 UTC.
- Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC xG for / against New York City FC: 0.80 / 0.95 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC.
- Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC xG for / against New York City FC: 0.51 / 1.09 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 01:20 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 01:20 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
DC United
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
New York City FC
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
DC United
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 14
- Points / played
- 33 / 33
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.
New York City FC
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Eastern Conference
- Position 11
- Points / played
- 39 / 33
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 05:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- New York City FC 0–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York City FC 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- DC United 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer · UTC
- New York City FC 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 07 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1490607
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- e8794b41e9604aa3e1fe0c23ea87a6313b172e87c5494c1ec6eb25e2b2ca5aa5