Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.68
- Without margin
- 34.69%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -24.69 pp
Serie A · 07 Oct 2026
Botafogo vs Vasco DA GamaMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–2 · regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 09 Oct 2026 03:50 UTC. Source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:37 UTC.
Result changes (1)
- v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 08 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC Source synced 08 Oct 2026 01:33 UTC · source kickoff 07 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC
- v2 · FT · 1–2 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 09 Oct 2026 03:50 UTC Source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:37 UTC · source kickoff 07 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 06 Oct 2026 20:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 06 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 06 Oct 2026 20:15 UTC. Saved 07 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.34
- Without margin
- 27.83%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +17.17 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.48
- Without margin
- 37.48%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +7.52 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.58%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Botafogo
DDLWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 5
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 1/5 20%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Botafogo scored 5 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Botafogo 1–1 RB BragantinoSerie A · UTC
- Botafogo 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A · UTC
- Botafogo 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
- Botafogo 1–0 CiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
- Botafogo 1–1 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Away matches
Vasco DA Gama
WDLWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 6
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Vasco DA Gama scored 5 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Gremio 1–2 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Santa Fe 0–0 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
- Fluminense 1–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Vitoria 0–2 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil · UTC
- Palmeiras 4–1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Botafogo
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Vasco DA Gama
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.29 / 2.28
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.15 / 1.14
- Goals on this same sample
- 3 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 1.52 / 0.68 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
- Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 0.77 / 1.60 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 21:02 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 21:02 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Botafogo
Reported absences
- Kaio PantaleaoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
- Matheus MartinsQuestionable · Lacking Match Fitness Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
- J. BarreraMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
- K. BarriaMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Vasco DA Gama
Reported absences
- BrennerMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
- Mateus CarvalhoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
- A. GomezMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 06 Oct 2026 21:24 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Botafogo
17.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 12
- Points / played
- 35 / 28
Table source synced 07 Oct 2026 00:14 UTC.
Vasco DA Gama
18 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 16
- Points / played
- 31 / 27
Table source synced 07 Oct 2026 00:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Vasco DA Gama 1–2 BotafogoSerie A · UTC
- Vasco DA Gama 2–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1 · UTC
- Botafogo 3–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Vasco DA Gama 1–1 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil · UTC
- Vasco DA Gama 0–2 BotafogoSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 07 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1492391
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 2f725fb6e40f75d222fd25bf145dba968328ca0f677bc18f916af0de1b3f1261