Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.8
- Without margin
- 51.68%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -41.68 pp
Serie A · 08 Oct 2026
Cruzeiro vs Sao PauloMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–0 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 08 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC. Source synced 08 Oct 2026 02:29 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 07 Oct 2026 19:59 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 07 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 07 Oct 2026 19:59 UTC. Saved 08 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.52
- Without margin
- 26.43%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +18.57 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 4.25
- Without margin
- 21.89%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +23.11 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.49%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Cruzeiro
WDWDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 10 / 5
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
Cruzeiro scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Cruzeiro 3–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
- Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil · UTC
- Cruzeiro 2–1 FlamengoSerie A · UTC
- Cruzeiro 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
- Cruzeiro 3–1 MirassolSerie A · UTC
Away matches
Sao Paulo
LLLDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 2 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 1/5 20%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Sao Paulo scored 2 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Palmeiras 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
- Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
- Chapecoense-sc 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
- Bolívar 1–1 Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
- Gremio 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Cruzeiro
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 0.53 / 1.14
- xG per match, for / against
- 0.53 / 1.14
- Goals on this same sample
- 1 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Cruzeiro vs Flamengo xG for / against Cruzeiro: 0.53 / 1.14 Statistics synced: team 13 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC; opponent 13 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC.
Away matches
Sao Paulo
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 3.03 / 3.81
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.01 / 1.27
- Goals on this same sample
- 1 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo xG for / against Sao Paulo: 1.29 / 2.43 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
- Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo xG for / against Sao Paulo: 1.13 / 0.57 Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC.
- Bolívar vs Sao Paulo xG for / against Sao Paulo: 0.61 / 0.81 Statistics synced: team 12 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC; opponent 12 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Cruzeiro
Reported absences
- Fabricio BrunoMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- L. SinisterraMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- Gabriel PecMissing Fixture · Broken Leg Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- K. ArroyoQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- N. VillarrealQuestionable · Ankle Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- KenjiQuestionable · Ankle Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sao Paulo
Reported absences
- Lucas MouraMissing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- ButaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- RafaelMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- LucianoMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- Iago BorduchiMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- D. DuarteMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- Lucca MarquesQuestionable · Jaw injury Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
- N. BosshardtMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Cruzeiro
17.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 6
- Points / played
- 45 / 28
Table source synced 07 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Sao Paulo
5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 10
- Points / played
- 36 / 28
Table source synced 07 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Sao Paulo 4–1 CruzeiroSerie A · UTC
- Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A · UTC
- Cruzeiro 1–1 Sao PauloFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- Cruzeiro 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 08 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1492393
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 6060fc25c9eec65030f8b730f24c00d67c9f7f1a534482b8f7c5c324b4d5a19f