Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 4–0· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 09 Oct 2026 03:50 UTC. Source synced 09 Oct 2026 03:49 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 07 Oct 2026 19:59 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Fluminense
WWWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Fluminense scored 8 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Fluminense 2–0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
Fluminense 1–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 2–1 RemoSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 0–0 Independ. RivadaviaCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
Away matches
Coritiba
LWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Coritiba scored 4 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Vasco DA Gama 5–0 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
Remo 2–3 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
Sao Paulo 1–1 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
RB Bragantino 0–0 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
Flamengo 3–0 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Fluminense
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.70 / 0.44
xG per match, for / against
0.70 / 0.44
Goals on this same sample
0 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Fluminense vs Independ. RivadaviaxG for / against Fluminense: 0.70 / 0.44
Statistics synced: team 12 Aug 2026 00:02 UTC; opponent 12 Aug 2026 00:02 UTC.
Away matches
Coritiba
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.39 / 4.26
xG per match, for / against
0.20 / 2.13
Goals on this same sample
0 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Vasco DA Gama vs CoritibaxG for / against Coritiba: 0.22 / 4.02
Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 16:25 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 16:25 UTC.
RB Bragantino vs CoritibaxG for / against Coritiba: 0.17 / 0.24
Statistics synced: team 27 Jul 2026 00:17 UTC; opponent 27 Jul 2026 00:17 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Fluminense
Reported absences
GugaMissing Fixture · Inactive
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
IgnacioQuestionable · Hamstring Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
NonatoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
AlissonMissing Fixture · Hip Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
G. CanoMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
A. CanobbioMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
John KennedyMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
Matheus ReisMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Coritiba
Reported absences
JacyMissing Fixture · Inactive
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
TingaMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
KenoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
B. OcampoMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
Lucas RonierMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
Joao Pedro ChermontQuestionable · Inactive
Record synced 07 Oct 2026 18:18 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Fluminense
18.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 5
Points / played
48 / 28
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:14 UTC.
Coritiba
19 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 9
Points / played
38 / 28
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Coritiba 1–1 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
Coritiba 2–0 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 5–2 CoritibaSerie A · UTC
Coritiba 3–2 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.