Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico ParanaenseMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–4· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 14 Oct 2026 02:01 UTC. Source synced 13 Oct 2026 22:38 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 2H
Initial source observation · 13 Oct 2026 05:21 UTC
Source synced 13 Oct 2026 00:25 UTC · source kickoff 12 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 1–4
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 14 Oct 2026 02:01 UTC
Source synced 13 Oct 2026 22:38 UTC · source kickoff 12 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 11 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Chapecoense-sc
LWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
5 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Chapecoense-sc scored 5 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Chapecoense-sc 1–2 InternacionalSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 3–3 BahiaSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 0–0 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 0–4 FlamengoSerie A · UTC
Away matches
Atletico Paranaense
DLWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 12
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Atletico Paranaense scored 9 and conceded 12 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Coritiba 3–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Cruzeiro 3–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Botafogo 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Santos 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Vitoria 4–0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Chapecoense-sc
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.25 / 2.33
xG per match, for / against
0.75 / 0.78
Goals on this same sample
2 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Chapecoense-sc vs InternacionalxG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.70 / 0.34
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao PauloxG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.57 / 1.13
Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC.
Chapecoense-sc vs FlamengoxG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.98 / 0.86
Statistics synced: team 23 Jul 2026 02:33 UTC; opponent 23 Jul 2026 02:33 UTC.
Away matches
Atletico Paranaense
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.15 / 1.27
xG per match, for / against
1.15 / 1.27
Goals on this same sample
2 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Santos vs Atletico ParanaensexG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 1.15 / 1.27
Statistics synced: team 10 Aug 2026 00:18 UTC; opponent 10 Aug 2026 00:18 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Chapecoense-sc
Reported absences
HeitorMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Rafael CarvalheiraMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
FernandoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Vinicius BalieiroMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Max AlvesMissing Fixture · Back Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Robert ConceicaoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Atletico Paranaense
Reported absences
G. BenavidezMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
DantasMissing Fixture · Inactive
Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Chapecoense-sc
5 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 07 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 20
Points / played
18 / 28
Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:18 UTC.
Atletico Paranaense
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 08 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 4
Points / played
50 / 29
Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B · UTC
Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Chapecoense-scSerie B · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 12 Oct 2026 00:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.