Serie A · 11 Oct 2026

Flamengo vs FluminenseMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 13 Oct 2026 05:21 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 1H Initial source observation · 11 Oct 2026 23:40 UTC Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:19 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 20:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 1–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 13 Oct 2026 05:21 UTC Source synced 12 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 20:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 21:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 10 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC; synced 10 Oct 2026 21:17 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 04:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.43
Without margin
65.02%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-20.02 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.45
Without margin
20.89%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+24.11 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
6.6
Without margin
14.09%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-4.09 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.55%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Flamengo

WDWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Flamengo scored 10 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Flamengo 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A · UTC
  2. Flamengo 1–1 Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
  3. Flamengo 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
  4. Flamengo 3–0 BotafogoSerie A · UTC
  5. Flamengo 2–1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC

Away matches

Fluminense

WLLDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Fluminense scored 9 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Corinthians 1–3 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
  2. Platense 2–1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
  3. Atletico-MG 3–1 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
  4. Atletico Paranaense 3–3 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
  5. Botafogo 1–1 FluminenseSerie A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Flamengo

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.55 / 1.57
xG per match, for / against
2.18 / 0.52
Goals on this same sample
7 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Flamengo vs Corinthians xG for / against Flamengo: 2.62 / 0.30 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
  2. Flamengo vs Botafogo xG for / against Flamengo: 1.70 / 0.79 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC.
  3. Flamengo vs Cruzeiro xG for / against Flamengo: 2.23 / 0.48 Statistics synced: team 20 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC; opponent 20 Aug 2026 02:42 UTC.

Away matches

Fluminense

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.93 / 4.34
xG per match, for / against
1.46 / 2.17
Goals on this same sample
4 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Corinthians vs Fluminense xG for / against Fluminense: 2.38 / 2.44 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC.
  2. Atletico-MG vs Fluminense xG for / against Fluminense: 0.55 / 1.90 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Flamengo

Reported absences

  • G. VarelaMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • Ayrton LucasMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • JorginhoMissing Fixture · Red Card Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • G. de ArrascaetaMissing Fixture · Wrist Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • Leo OrtizMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • Evertton AraujoMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Fluminense

Reported absences

  • ReneQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • AlissonMissing Fixture · Hip Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • G. CanoMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • John KennedyMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.
  • Matheus ReisMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 03:34 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Flamengo

2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 08 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 1
Points / played
61 / 29

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 04:14 UTC.

Fluminense

2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 09 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 3
Points / played
51 / 29

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 04:14 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Fluminense 1–2 FlamengoSerie A · UTC
  2. Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoCarioca - 1 · UTC
  3. Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoSerie A · UTC
  4. Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
  5. Flamengo 0–0 FluminenseCarioca - 1 · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 04:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1492405
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
97c9916a94797cb67c1e92370fd365414a679efa62fcd1a06e5bf849591c2853