Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–1· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 26 Oct 2026 10:21 UTC. Source synced 26 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 2H
Initial source observation · 25 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
Source synced 25 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC · source kickoff 24 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 2–1
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 26 Oct 2026 10:21 UTC
Source synced 26 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC · source kickoff 24 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 18 Oct 2026 20:08 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Chapecoense-sc
LLWDD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Chapecoense-sc scored 6 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 1–2 InternacionalSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 3–3 BahiaSerie A · UTC
Chapecoense-sc 0–0 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil · UTC
Away matches
Fluminense
LWLLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Fluminense scored 8 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Corinthians 1–3 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Platense 2–1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
Atletico-MG 3–1 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
Atletico Paranaense 3–3 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Chapecoense-sc
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.02 / 2.86
xG per match, for / against
1.01 / 0.95
Goals on this same sample
3 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico ParanaensexG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 1.75 / 1.39
Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 02:35 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 02:35 UTC.
Chapecoense-sc vs InternacionalxG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.70 / 0.34
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao PauloxG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.57 / 1.13
Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 00:22 UTC.
Away matches
Fluminense
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.58 / 5.99
xG per match, for / against
1.19 / 2.00
Goals on this same sample
4 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Flamengo vs FluminensexG for / against Fluminense: 0.65 / 1.65
Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC.
Corinthians vs FluminensexG for / against Fluminense: 2.38 / 2.44
Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC.
Atletico-MG vs FluminensexG for / against Fluminense: 0.55 / 1.90
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Chapecoense-sc
Reported absences
HeitorMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Rafael CarvalheiraMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Vinicius BalieiroMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
KauanMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Robert ConceicaoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Fluminense
Reported absences
AlissonMissing Fixture · Hip Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
J. SavarinoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
MartinelliQuestionable · Inactive
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
John KennedyMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Matheus ReisMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Chapecoense-sc
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 21:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 20
Points / played
18 / 30
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 06:17 UTC.
Fluminense
2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 22 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie A
Position 5
Points / played
51 / 31
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 06:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
Fluminense 3–0 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 24 Oct 2026 06:50 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.