Serie A · 28 Oct 2026

RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-scMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–0 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 30 Oct 2026 06:01 UTC. Source synced 29 Oct 2026 22:38 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 29 Oct 2026 06:21 UTC Source synced 29 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 3–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 30 Oct 2026 06:01 UTC Source synced 29 Oct 2026 22:38 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 27 Oct 2026 21:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 27 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 27 Oct 2026 21:15 UTC. Saved 28 Oct 2026 01:51 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.26
Without margin
73.84%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-28.84 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
5.55
Without margin
16.76%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+28.24 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
9.9
Without margin
9.40%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
+0.60 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.48%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

RB Bragantino

WDLWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

RB Bragantino scored 8 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. RB Bragantino 4–2 CruzeiroSerie A · UTC
  2. RB Bragantino 1–1 MirassolSerie A · UTC
  3. RB Bragantino 2–3 BahiaSerie A · UTC
  4. RB Bragantino 1–0 GremioSerie A · UTC
  5. RB Bragantino 0–1 Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC

Away matches

Chapecoense-sc

LLDDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Chapecoense-sc scored 4 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
  2. Vitoria 4–0 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
  3. Atletico Nacional 1–1 Chapecoense-scFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  4. Atletico-MG 1–1 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC
  5. Corinthians 1–2 Chapecoense-scSerie A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

RB Bragantino

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
9.64 / 5.87
xG per match, for / against
2.41 / 1.47
Goals on this same sample
6 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro xG for / against RB Bragantino: 2.88 / 2.80 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 02:44 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 02:44 UTC.
  2. RB Bragantino vs Mirassol xG for / against RB Bragantino: 2.56 / 1.19 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 09:05 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 09:05 UTC.
  3. RB Bragantino vs Gremio xG for / against RB Bragantino: 2.70 / 0.50 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC.
  4. RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG xG for / against RB Bragantino: 1.50 / 1.38 Statistics synced: team 13 Aug 2026 00:02 UTC; opponent 13 Aug 2026 00:02 UTC.

Away matches

Chapecoense-sc

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.72 / 7.23
xG per match, for / against
0.57 / 2.41
Goals on this same sample
1 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc xG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.21 / 2.36 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:06 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:06 UTC.
  2. Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc xG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 0.38 / 2.67 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 09:14 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 09:14 UTC.
  3. Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc xG for / against Chapecoense-sc: 1.13 / 2.20 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:06 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:06 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

RB Bragantino

Reported absences

  • Tiago VolpiMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • GabrielMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • A. HurtadoMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Gustavo MarquesMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • H. MosqueraQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • RodriguinhoQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Gustavo NevesMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Davi GomesMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Chapecoense-sc

Reported absences

  • Yago FelipeMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • HeitorMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Camilo ReijersMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Rafael CarvalheiraQuestionable · Knee Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Vinicius BalieiroMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.
  • Robert ConceicaoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 00:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

RB Bragantino

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 21:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 10
Points / played
41 / 32

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Chapecoense-sc

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 20
Points / played
21 / 31

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Chapecoense-sc 1–2 RB BragantinoSerie A · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 28 Oct 2026 01:51 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1492432
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
02dde1a50ca0a73e469c2b5c7d6c8b835890f1c480d082e6942a8504d2588fb4