Serie A · 30 Oct 2026

Gremio vs Atletico ParanaenseMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 30 Oct 2026 06:01 UTC. Source synced 30 Oct 2026 05:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 28 Oct 2026 20:59 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Gremio

LDDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Gremio scored 7 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Gremio 2–4 CruzeiroSerie A · UTC
  2. Gremio 1–1 InternacionalSerie A · UTC
  3. Gremio 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A · UTC
  4. Gremio 1–2 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
  5. Gremio 3–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil · UTC

Away matches

Atletico Paranaense

DWDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Atletico Paranaense scored 12 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Vitoria 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  2. Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  3. Coritiba 3–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  4. Cruzeiro 3–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  5. Botafogo 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Gremio

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.08 / 6.27
xG per match, for / against
1.27 / 1.57
Goals on this same sample
4 / 7

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Gremio vs Cruzeiro xG for / against Gremio: 1.99 / 1.48 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 21:55 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 21:55 UTC.
  2. Gremio vs Internacional xG for / against Gremio: 1.44 / 0.78 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC.
  3. Gremio vs Palmeiras xG for / against Gremio: 0.97 / 2.49 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:14 UTC.
  4. Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Gremio: 0.68 / 1.52 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.

Away matches

Atletico Paranaense

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.89 / 3.32
xG per match, for / against
0.95 / 1.66
Goals on this same sample
5 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense xG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 0.52 / 1.60 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC.
  2. Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense xG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 1.37 / 1.72 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 07:24 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 07:24 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Gremio

Reported absences

  • J. CabralMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • Danilo BarbosaMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • J. NardoniMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • Diego CaitoQuestionable · Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • B. G. Joao PedroMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Atletico Paranaense

Reported absences

  • JadsonMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • GilbertoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • C. TeranMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • G. BenavidezMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • K. A. Calderon VargasMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • DantasMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • Arthur DiasMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • ClaudinhoMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.
  • Bruno BaldiniQuestionable · Injury Record synced 28 Oct 2026 19:34 UTC. This record was collected over 24 hours before publication.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Gremio

3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 26 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 17
Points / played
34 / 32

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Atletico Paranaense

5.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 19:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie A
Position 4
Points / played
54 / 32

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Atletico Paranaense 0–0 GremioSerie A · UTC
  2. Atletico Paranaense 0–2 GremioSerie A · UTC
  3. Gremio 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  4. Gremio 1–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
  5. Atletico Paranaense 1–2 GremioSerie A · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 30 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1492436
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
0ffc04f93a338956eb2f440829bccce0a39cf30709ab198b717a4a008572028e