Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.01
- Without margin
- 46.28%
- Provider estimate
- 35.00%
- Provider − market
- -11.28 pp
Serie A · 04 Nov 2026
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA GamaMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 35%
- Draw
- 35%
- Away win
- 30%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 03 Nov 2026 21:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 03 Nov 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 03 Nov 2026 21:15 UTC. Saved 04 Nov 2026 01:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.62
- Without margin
- 25.70%
- Provider estimate
- 35.00%
- Provider − market
- +9.30 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 3.32
- Without margin
- 28.02%
- Provider estimate
- 30.00%
- Provider − market
- +1.98 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.50%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Atletico Paranaense
LDWDD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 8 / 9
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
Atletico Paranaense scored 8 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Atletico Paranaense 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MGSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 2–1 BahiaSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 3–3 FluminenseSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 1–1 RB BragantinoSerie A · UTC
Away matches
Vasco DA Gama
LLWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 5 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Vasco DA Gama scored 5 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil · UTC
- Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
- Botafogo 1–2 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Gremio 1–2 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Atletico Paranaense
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.25 / 3.01
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.42 / 1.00
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras xG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 1.13 / 0.32 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:24 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:24 UTC.
- Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG xG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 2.48 / 1.50 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 23:05 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 23:05 UTC.
- Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia xG for / against Atletico Paranaense: 0.64 / 1.19 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:55 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:55 UTC.
Away matches
Vasco DA Gama
Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.93 / 5.96
- xG per match, for / against
- 0.99 / 1.19
- Goals on this same sample
- 5 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 0.31 / 1.86 Statistics synced: team 02 Nov 2026 19:15 UTC; opponent 02 Nov 2026 19:15 UTC.
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 0.92 / 1.26 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:45 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:45 UTC.
- Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 0.49 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 05:16 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 05:16 UTC.
- Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 1.69 / 0.61 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC.
- Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Vasco DA Gama: 1.52 / 0.68 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Atletico Paranaense
Reported absences
- C. TeranMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
- ClaudinhoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Vasco DA Gama
Reported absences
- C. CuestaMissing Fixture · Hip Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
- Mateus CarvalhoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
- A. GomezMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
- Cauan BarrosMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 00:54 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Atletico Paranaense
5.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 30 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 5
- Points / played
- 54 / 33
Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
Vasco DA Gama
3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 13
- Points / played
- 38 / 32
Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
- Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil · UTC
- Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 04 Nov 2026 01:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1492440
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 8cadde998e3150937acae56ef13b45d77cce59c3e6730e2cf14de60f1a9c47f3