Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.48
- Without margin
- 37.49%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +7.51 pp
Serie A · 05 Nov 2026
Sao Paulo vs CorinthiansMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Awaiting confirmed result.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 04 Nov 2026 20:59 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 04 Nov 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 04 Nov 2026 20:59 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.1
- Without margin
- 29.99%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +15.01 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.86
- Without margin
- 32.51%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -22.51 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.55%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Sao Paulo
WWLWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 6 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Sao Paulo scored 6 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 2–1 VitoriaSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 1–2 SantosSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 1–0 InternacionalSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 1–1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana · UTC
Away matches
Corinthians
LLLLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 6 / 12
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
Corinthians scored 6 and conceded 12 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Vasco DA Gama 3–2 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
- Palmeiras 4–1 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
- Internacional 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
- Flamengo 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
- Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Sao Paulo
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.89 / 2.31
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.63 / 0.77
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama xG for / against Sao Paulo: 1.26 / 0.92 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:45 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:45 UTC.
- Sao Paulo vs Vitoria xG for / against Sao Paulo: 1.80 / 0.79 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC.
- Sao Paulo vs Santos xG for / against Sao Paulo: 1.83 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 23:24 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 23:24 UTC.
Away matches
Corinthians
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.20 / 8.73
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.05 / 2.18
- Goals on this same sample
- 5 / 11
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians xG for / against Corinthians: 0.75 / 1.75 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:56 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:56 UTC.
- Palmeiras vs Corinthians xG for / against Corinthians: 0.71 / 2.60 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:55 UTC.
- Internacional vs Corinthians xG for / against Corinthians: 2.44 / 1.76 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 09:05 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 09:05 UTC.
- Flamengo vs Corinthians xG for / against Corinthians: 0.30 / 2.62 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:50 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Sao Paulo
Reported absences
- Marcos AntonioMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- ButaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- SabinoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- ArturMissing Fixture · Back Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- D. DuarteMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- FerreiraQuestionable · Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- N. BosshardtMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Corinthians
Reported absences
- Z. LabyadMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- M. DepayMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- Gabriel PaulistaMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- Alex SantanaQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- MatheuzinhoMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- RanieleMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
- KaykeMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 04 Nov 2026 19:21 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Sao Paulo
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 10
- Points / played
- 43 / 33
Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 23:17 UTC.
Corinthians
5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 30 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Serie A
- Position 18
- Points / played
- 36 / 33
Table source synced 04 Nov 2026 23:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Corinthians 3–2 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
- Corinthians 1–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1 · UTC
- Corinthians 3–1 Sao PauloSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 2–0 CorinthiansSerie A · UTC
- Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansPaulista - A1 · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1492448
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 566ae4a96e0adcd48c2629c2bfe8fca20e9bece1625b3d11e90842c6777ee90a