Liga Profesional Argentina · 04 Oct 2026

Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano CordobaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC.

Published 04 Oct 2026 · 03:11 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–1 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 05 Oct 2026 01:50 UTC. Source synced 04 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Result changes (1)

v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 04 Oct 2026 21:30 UTC Source synced 04 Oct 2026 21:30 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC
v2 · FT · 0–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 05 Oct 2026 01:50 UTC Source synced 04 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 20:32 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 03 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 03 Oct 2026 20:32 UTC. Saved 04 Oct 2026 03:11 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 2.52
Without margin: 36.92%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -26.92 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 2.96
Without margin: 31.43%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +13.57 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 2.94
Without margin: 31.65%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +13.35 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.48%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Talleres Cordoba

WDDLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Talleres Cordoba scored 5 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

12 Sep 2026Talleres Cordoba 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
30 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
23 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
09 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–3 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
29 Jul 2026Talleres Cordoba 1–3 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC

Away matches

Belgrano Cordoba

DDLWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 3 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency: 0/5 0%
BTTS frequency: 1/5 20%

Belgrano Cordoba scored 3 and conceded 2 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

13 Sep 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
30 Aug 2026Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
19 Aug 2026Racing Club 1–0 Belgrano CordobaCopa Argentina · UTC
09 Aug 2026Banfield 0–2 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
29 Jul 2026Tigre 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Talleres Cordoba

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 4.30 / 5.86
xG per match, for / against: 1.43 / 1.95
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 8

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

23 Aug 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Rosario Central xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 1.67 / 2.41 Statistics synced: team 25 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC; opponent 25 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC.
09 Aug 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Lanus xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 0.86 / 2.37 Statistics synced: team 12 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC; opponent 12 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC.
29 Jul 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Velez Sarsfield xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 1.77 / 1.08 Statistics synced: team 31 Jul 2026 00:17 UTC; opponent 31 Jul 2026 00:17 UTC.

Away matches

Belgrano Cordoba

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 3.88 / 3.46
xG per match, for / against: 1.94 / 1.73
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

13 Sep 2026 Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba xG for / against Belgrano Cordoba: 2.18 / 1.53 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:59 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:59 UTC.
09 Aug 2026 Banfield vs Belgrano Cordoba xG for / against Belgrano Cordoba: 1.70 / 1.93 Statistics synced: team 11 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC; opponent 11 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Talleres Cordoba

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Belgrano Cordoba

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Talleres Cordoba

14 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura - Group A: Position 4
Points / played: 26 / 16

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 02:18 UTC.

Clausura - Group A: Position 14
Points / played: 8 / 10

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 02:18 UTC.

Belgrano Cordoba

13.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 22:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura - Group B: Position 5
Points / played: 26 / 16

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 02:18 UTC.

Clausura - Group B: Position 5
Points / played: 16 / 10

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 02:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

09 May 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
15 Mar 2026Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
05 Oct 2025Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
30 Mar 2025Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
06 Oct 2024Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 04 Oct 2026 03:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1493165
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 9e348795934a4f460652ae27260d2f227c853a7f41450ca54be1b16d335233aa