Liga Profesional Argentina · 12 Oct 2026

Talleres Cordoba vs IndependienteMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 12 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC.

Published 12 Oct 2026 · 00:10 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 12 Oct 2026 09:41 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 09:39 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Draw. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 11 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 11 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 11 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Saved 12 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 2.21
Without margin: 42.07%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -32.07 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.08
Without margin: 30.18%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +14.82 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 3.35
Without margin: 27.75%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +17.25 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.57%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Talleres Cordoba

LWDDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 4 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Talleres Cordoba scored 4 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

04 Oct 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
12 Sep 2026Talleres Cordoba 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
30 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
23 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
09 Aug 2026Talleres Cordoba 0–3 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC

Away matches

Independiente

WWWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 6 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Independiente scored 6 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

20 Sep 2026Union Santa Fe 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
06 Sep 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
16 Aug 2026Lanus 1–3 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
12 Aug 2026Atletico Tucuman 4–0 IndependienteCopa Argentina · UTC
02 Aug 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Talleres Cordoba

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 3.27 / 5.53
xG per match, for / against: 1.09 / 1.84
Goals on this same sample: 2 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

04 Oct 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 0.74 / 0.75 Statistics synced: team 07 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC; opponent 07 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.
23 Aug 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Rosario Central xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 1.67 / 2.41 Statistics synced: team 25 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC; opponent 25 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC.
09 Aug 2026 Talleres Cordoba vs Lanus xG for / against Talleres Cordoba: 0.86 / 2.37 Statistics synced: team 12 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC; opponent 12 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC.

Away matches

Independiente

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 1.50 / 3.20
xG per match, for / against: 0.75 / 1.60
Goals on this same sample: 5 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

20 Sep 2026 Union Santa Fe vs Independiente xG for / against Independiente: 0.34 / 1.33 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 07:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 07:15 UTC.
16 Aug 2026 Lanus vs Independiente xG for / against Independiente: 1.16 / 1.87 Statistics synced: team 17 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC; opponent 17 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Talleres Cordoba

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Independiente

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Talleres Cordoba

7.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura - Group A: Position 4
Points / played: 26 / 16

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Clausura - Group A: Position 15
Points / played: 8 / 11

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Independiente

9.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 22:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura - Group A: Position 5
Points / played: 24 / 16

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Clausura - Group A: Position 8
Points / played: 17 / 11

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

21 Mar 2026Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
21 Jul 2025Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
29 Jan 2025Talleres Cordoba 2–3 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
11 May 2024Independiente 1–3 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · UTC
15 Apr 2024Independiente 2–2 Talleres CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 12 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1493179
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 2a153481acffc2f04cff0a7ca50f4eec76ade5d4b2a490227ca924091bb560fc