Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.55
- Without margin
- 57.66%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -12.66 pp
USL Championship · 11 Oct 2026
New Mexico United vs Monterey BayMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 3–1 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 05:50 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 05:49 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:45 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 10 Oct 2026 20:03 UTC; synced 11 Oct 2026 00:45 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 00:51 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.1
- Without margin
- 21.80%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +23.20 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 4.35
- Without margin
- 20.54%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -10.54 pp
Raw implied probability total: 111.89%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
New Mexico United
WLDLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 9 / 9
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 5/5 100%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
New Mexico United scored 9 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- New Mexico United 2–1 Phoenix RisingUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 2–3 Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 2–2 Indy ElevenUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 1–2 San AntonioUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 2–1 LexingtonUSL Championship · UTC
Away matches
Monterey Bay
WLLDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 4 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Monterey Bay scored 4 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Orange County SC 1–2 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- Charleston Battery 1–0 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- Rhode Island 3–1 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- Oakland Roots 1–1 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- El Paso Locomotive 1–0 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
New Mexico United
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Monterey Bay
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
New Mexico United
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Monterey Bay
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
New Mexico United
6.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 22:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- USL Championship
- Position 2
- Points / played
- 46 / 27
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC.
Monterey Bay
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- USL Championship
- Position 12
- Points / played
- 21 / 27
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Monterey Bay 2–5 New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship · UTC
- Monterey Bay 1–1 New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 1–0 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- New Mexico United 3–2 Monterey BayUSL Championship · UTC
- Monterey Bay 1–0 New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 00:51 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1493739
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 7500f5cee7f12e4fd0a115f5f9c2ccb6eef750560730a02c8317a115a64e6b75