Allsvenskan · 11 Oct 2026

BK Hacken vs Orgryte ISMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC.

Published 11 Oct 2026 · 03:00 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 23:50 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 45%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 10%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 20:33 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 10 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 10 Oct 2026 20:33 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 03:00 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.3
Without margin: 71.60%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -26.60 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 5.6
Without margin: 16.62%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +28.38 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 7.9
Without margin: 11.78%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -1.78 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.44%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

BK Hacken

DLWDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 4 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency: 1/5 20%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

BK Hacken scored 4 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

13 Sep 2026BK Hacken 1–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan · UTC
30 Aug 2026BK Hacken 1–3 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan · UTC
16 Aug 2026BK Hacken 1–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan · UTC
02 Aug 2026BK Hacken 1–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan · UTC
26 Jul 2026BK Hacken 0–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan · UTC

Away matches

Orgryte IS

LLLWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Orgryte IS scored 5 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

13 Sep 2026Malmo FF 4–1 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan · UTC
30 Aug 2026IFK Goteborg 1–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan · UTC
16 Aug 2026IF Brommapojkarna 3–1 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan · UTC
02 Aug 2026AIK Stockholm 0–3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan · UTC
26 Jul 2026Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

BK Hacken

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Orgryte IS

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 1.31 / 3.36
xG per match, for / against: 1.31 / 3.36
Goals on this same sample: 1 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

13 Sep 2026 Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS xG for / against Orgryte IS: 1.31 / 3.36 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 03:59 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 03:59 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

BK Hacken

Reported absences

B. EngdahlMissing Fixture · Lower-Body Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.
F. OhmanMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Orgryte IS

Reported absences

R. AlmMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.
J. TibblingMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.
W. SvenssonMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.
V. EkblomMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.
A. AbukarMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 02:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

BK Hacken

9.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Allsvenskan: Position 5
Points / played: 36 / 22

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:20 UTC.

Orgryte IS

21.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Allsvenskan: Position 15
Points / played: 15 / 22

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:20 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

11 Jul 2026Orgryte IS 4–3 BK HackenAllsvenskan · UTC
14 Feb 2026BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte ISFriendlies Clubs · UTC
20 Jun 2022Orgryte IS 2–2 BK HackenFriendlies Clubs · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 03:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1494293
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 85da0e375bc5fce3080268d4f4f3aa20ce62b2bcbde2477bb3293e4ad9a0f3c4