Eliteserien · 25 Oct 2026

Molde vs FredrikstadMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 5–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 26 Oct 2026 10:41 UTC. Source synced 25 Oct 2026 21:19 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 05 Jul 2026 14:56 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Molde

WWLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
15 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Molde scored 15 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Molde 6–1 StartEliteserien · UTC
  2. Molde 3–0 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  3. Molde 1–2 AalesundEliteserien · UTC
  4. Molde 2–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien · UTC
  5. Molde 3–2 TromsoEliteserien · UTC

Away matches

Fredrikstad

LDWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
15 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Fredrikstad scored 15 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Viking 3–2 FredrikstadEliteserien · UTC
  2. Valerenga 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien · UTC
  3. Stjørdals-Blink 0–1 FredrikstadNM Cupen · UTC
  4. Lillestrom 1–4 FredrikstadEliteserien · UTC
  5. Home team 1–7 FredrikstadNM Cupen · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Molde

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.21 / 2.34
xG per match, for / against
3.11 / 1.17
Goals on this same sample
9 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Molde vs Start xG for / against Molde: 3.67 / 1.74 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 05:15 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 05:15 UTC.
  2. Molde vs Tromso xG for / against Molde: 2.54 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 17 Aug 2026 10:19 UTC; opponent 17 Aug 2026 10:19 UTC.

Away matches

Fredrikstad

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.18 / 3.33
xG per match, for / against
0.59 / 1.67
Goals on this same sample
3 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Viking vs Fredrikstad xG for / against Fredrikstad: 0.47 / 1.78 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 13:45 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 13:45 UTC.
  2. Valerenga vs Fredrikstad xG for / against Fredrikstad: 0.71 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Molde

Reported absences

  • E. HestadMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • V. HoffMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • H. StenevikMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • M. KikkenborgMissing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • S. HansenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • S. DiopMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Fredrikstad

Reported absences

  • D. EidMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • S. KvileMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.
  • J. NysveenQuestionable · Injury Record synced 25 Oct 2026 03:04 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Molde

7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 3
Points / played
40 / 23

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 04:21 UTC.

Fredrikstad

8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 9
Points / played
29 / 23

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 04:21 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Molde 1–2 FredrikstadEliteserien · UTC
  2. Fredrikstad 4–2 MoldeEliteserien · UTC
  3. Molde 6–1 FredrikstadEliteserien · UTC
  4. Fredrikstad 0–0 MoldeEliteserien · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 25 Oct 2026 05:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1494688
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
3322aff5de8b491b72eda93b31f74860c6dfd70742eb894c52ab2810a62de892