Eliteserien · 11 Oct 2026

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FFMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–4 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 23:50 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.735 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 20:48 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 10 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 10 Oct 2026 20:48 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 03:00 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.42
Without margin
38.42%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
-3.42 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.64
Without margin
25.54%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+9.46 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.58
Without margin
36.04%
Provider estimate
30.00%
Provider − market
-6.04 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.55%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Aalesund

WDLDD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 14
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Aalesund scored 12 and conceded 14 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Aalesund 2–0 StartEliteserien · UTC
  2. Aalesund 5–5 ValerengaEliteserien · UTC
  3. Aalesund 2–6 TromsoEliteserien · UTC
  4. Aalesund 1–1 VikingEliteserien · UTC
  5. Aalesund 2–2 MoldeEliteserien · UTC

Away matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF

WDDWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scored 6 and conceded 3 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Follo 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen · UTC
  2. Fredrikstad 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC
  3. Tromso 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC
  4. Home team 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen · UTC
  5. Viking 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Aalesund

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.96 / 3.52
xG per match, for / against
1.98 / 1.76
Goals on this same sample
3 / 7

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Aalesund vs Tromso xG for / against Aalesund: 2.46 / 1.82 Statistics synced: team 03 Aug 2026 04:22 UTC; opponent 03 Aug 2026 04:22 UTC.
  2. Aalesund vs Viking xG for / against Aalesund: 1.50 / 1.70 Statistics synced: team 27 Jul 2026 02:19 UTC; opponent 27 Jul 2026 02:19 UTC.

Away matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.23 / 1.40
xG per match, for / against
0.23 / 1.40
Goals on this same sample
1 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF xG for / against Sarpsborg 08 FF: 0.23 / 1.40 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 06:20 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 06:20 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Aalesund

Reported absences

  • J. SeehusenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • P. NgongoMissing Fixture · Surgery Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • M. AndresenMissing Fixture · Yellow Cards Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • S. HaramMissing Fixture · Elbow Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • I. DjantouMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • H. HammerMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • M. KristensenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • A. KjelsenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Reported absences

  • F. CarstensenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
  • M. OpokuMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Aalesund

21 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 14
Points / played
21 / 21

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:20 UTC.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

11 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 30 Sep 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 9
Points / played
25 / 21

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:20 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC
  2. Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien · UTC
  3. Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC
  4. Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 03:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1494772
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
059e4fd1d03de25e7006ee4fe82df2029403211dec9139836af92bd13e5d77a1