Eliteserien · 18 Oct 2026

Molde vs StartMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 6–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 00:50 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 23:19 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 17 Oct 2026 20:07 UTC; synced 17 Oct 2026 23:19 UTC. Saved 18 Oct 2026 03:31 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.31
Without margin
71.01%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-26.01 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
5.5
Without margin
16.91%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+28.09 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
7.7
Without margin
12.08%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-2.08 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.50%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Molde

WLWWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Molde scored 12 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Molde 3–0 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  2. Molde 1–2 AalesundEliteserien · UTC
  3. Molde 2–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien · UTC
  4. Molde 3–2 TromsoEliteserien · UTC
  5. Molde 3–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien · UTC

Away matches

Start

WLWLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Start scored 10 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Raufoss 1–5 StartNM Cupen · UTC
  2. Sandefjord 3–0 StartEliteserien · UTC
  3. Vindbjart 2–3 StartNM Cupen · UTC
  4. Aalesund 2–0 StartEliteserien · UTC
  5. Home team 1–2 StartNM Cupen · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Molde

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
4.09 / 1.35
xG per match, for / against
2.05 / 0.68
Goals on this same sample
6 / 5

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Molde vs Tromso xG for / against Molde: 2.54 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 17 Aug 2026 10:19 UTC; opponent 17 Aug 2026 10:19 UTC.
  2. Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF xG for / against Molde: 1.55 / 0.75 Statistics synced: team 03 Aug 2026 04:21 UTC; opponent 03 Aug 2026 04:21 UTC.

Away matches

Start

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.23 / 2.24
xG per match, for / against
0.23 / 2.24
Goals on this same sample
0 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Sandefjord vs Start xG for / against Start: 0.23 / 2.24 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Molde

Reported absences

  • E. HestadMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • V. HoffMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • H. StenevikMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • M. KikkenborgMissing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • S. HansenMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • S. DiopMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Start

Reported absences

  • F. ManojlovicMissing Fixture · Hand Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • K. TonnesenMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.
  • J. HuseboMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:54 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Molde

6.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 17:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 4
Points / played
37 / 22

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 03:20 UTC.

Start

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eliteserien
Position 16
Points / played
16 / 22

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 03:20 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Start 1–1 MoldeEliteserien · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 03:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1494782
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
bd80caa73481aac40e9f34ce2f98894a98e276d39fcb3b9035143ca144f291fe