NWSL Women · 01 Nov 2026

Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave WMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 · 22:00 UTC.

Published 01 Nov 2026 · 04:21 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Awaiting confirmed result.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 22:18 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 31 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 22:18 UTC. Saved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 3.6
Without margin: 24.75%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -14.75 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.8
Without margin: 23.45%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +21.55 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 1.72
Without margin: 51.80%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -6.80 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.23%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Bay FC W

LWLWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 7 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Bay FC W scored 7 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

27 Sep 2026Bay FC W 1–3 Orlando Pride WNWSL Women · UTC
20 Sep 2026Bay FC W 2–0 Racing Louisville WNWSL Women · UTC
05 Sep 2026Bay FC W 1–2 Kansas City WNWSL Women · UTC
23 Aug 2026Bay FC W 1–0 Houston Dash WNWSL Women · UTC
02 Aug 2026Bay FC W 2–3 Seattle Reign FC WNWSL Women · UTC

Away matches

San Diego Wave W

WWWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 6 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency: 2/5 40%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

San Diego Wave W scored 6 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

17 Oct 2026North Carolina Courage W 1–2 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC
03 Oct 2026Orlando Pride W 1–2 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC
25 Sep 2026Racing Louisville W 0–2 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC
07 Sep 2026Seattle Reign FC W 1–0 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC
08 Aug 2026NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1–0 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Bay FC W

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

San Diego Wave W

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 2.46 / 1.85
xG per match, for / against: 2.46 / 1.85
Goals on this same sample: 2 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

17 Oct 2026 North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W xG for / against San Diego Wave W: 2.46 / 1.85 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:26 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:26 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Bay FC W

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

San Diego Wave W

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Bay FC W

7.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 00:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Nwsl Women: Position 14
Points / played: 27 / 29

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 03:27 UTC.

San Diego Wave W

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Nwsl Women: Position 2
Points / played: 55 / 29

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 03:27 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

03 May 2026San Diego Wave W 0–1 Bay FC WNWSL Women · UTC
17 Aug 2025Bay FC W 1–2 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC
05 May 2025San Diego Wave W 2–1 Bay FC WNWSL Women · UTC
21 Jul 2024San Diego Wave W 3–1 Bay FC WNWSL - Liga MXF Summer Cup · UTC
18 May 2024Bay FC W 2–1 San Diego Wave WNWSL Women · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1508589
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 8ad45514f1bb9a65c61fe2a67b863caed78e3a84289b6254a0f10ce69bef9719