Virsliga · 18 Oct 2026

Riga vs Super NovaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC.

Published 18 Oct 2026 · 02:00 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.500 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 50%
Draw: 50%
Away win: 0%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 23:47 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 17 Oct 2026 20:33 UTC; synced 17 Oct 2026 23:47 UTC. Saved 18 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.06
Without margin: 84.32%
Provider estimate: 50.00%
Provider − market: -34.32 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 8.1
Without margin: 11.03%
Provider estimate: 50.00%
Provider − market: +38.97 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 19.25
Without margin: 4.64%
Provider estimate: 0.00%
Provider − market: -4.64 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.88%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Riga

DDDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 10 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 5/5 100%

Riga scored 10 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

15 Oct 2026Riga 1–1 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
12 Sep 2026Riga 2–2 AudaVirsliga · UTC
06 Sep 2026Riga 1–1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga · UTC
27 Aug 2026Riga 2–1 KI KlaksvikUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
16 Aug 2026Riga 4–1 Metta / LUCup · UTC

Away matches

Super Nova

LLWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 4 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 2/5 40%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Super Nova scored 4 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

15 Oct 2026Rīgas FS 4–0 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC
20 Sep 2026Ogre United 1–0 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC
05 Sep 2026FS Jelgava 0–1 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC
28 Aug 2026Auda 1–1 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC
11 Jul 2026Tukums 1–2 Super NovaCup · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Riga

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 2.31 / 1.15
xG per match, for / against: 2.31 / 1.15
Goals on this same sample: 1 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

15 Oct 2026 Riga vs Kairat Almaty xG for / against Riga: 2.31 / 1.15 Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC.

Away matches

Super Nova

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Riga

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Super Nova

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Riga

2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Virsliga: Position 2
Points / played: 76 / 32

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:19 UTC.

Super Nova

3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Virsliga: Position 6
Points / played: 38 / 32

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

15 Sep 2026Super Nova 0–1 RigaVirsliga · UTC
24 May 2026Riga 3–0 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC
14 Apr 2026Super Nova 1–4 RigaVirsliga · UTC
30 Aug 2025Super Nova 2–6 RigaVirsliga · UTC
22 Jun 2025Riga 2–0 Super NovaVirsliga · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1515937
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 151c991234cb172b3c91b069cb79c69069fb704287f47d26406fa589bc612a39