Virsliga · 01 Nov 2026

BFC Daugavpils vs TukumsMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Awaiting confirmed result.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
50%
Draw
50%
Away win
0%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 22:32 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 31 Oct 2026 20:31 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 22:32 UTC. Saved 01 Nov 2026 01:01 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.38
Without margin
64.56%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
-14.56 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.3
Without margin
20.72%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+29.28 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
6.05
Without margin
14.73%
Provider estimate
0.00%
Provider − market
-14.73 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.25%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

BFC Daugavpils

WLWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

BFC Daugavpils scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. BFC Daugavpils 2–1 AudaVirsliga · UTC
  2. BFC Daugavpils 1–2 Rīgas FSVirsliga · UTC
  3. BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre UnitedCup · UTC
  4. BFC Daugavpils 2–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  5. BFC Daugavpils 2–1 FS JelgavaVirsliga · UTC

Away matches

Tukums

DLLLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
0 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
0/5 0%

Tukums scored 0 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 0 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FK Liepaja 0–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  2. Rīgas FS 2–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  3. Super Nova 1–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  4. Auda 3–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  5. BFC Daugavpils 2–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

BFC Daugavpils

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.99 / 2.47
xG per match, for / against
0.99 / 2.47
Goals on this same sample
2 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. BFC Daugavpils vs Auda xG for / against BFC Daugavpils: 0.99 / 2.47 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 03:24 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 03:24 UTC.

Away matches

Tukums

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.68 / 5.40
xG per match, for / against
0.34 / 2.70
Goals on this same sample
0 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. FK Liepaja vs Tukums xG for / against Tukums: 0.46 / 2.82 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 09:35 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 09:35 UTC.
  2. Rīgas FS vs Tukums xG for / against Tukums: 0.22 / 2.58 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 03:45 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 03:45 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

BFC Daugavpils

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Tukums

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

BFC Daugavpils

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Virsliga
Position 4
Points / played
48 / 34

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC.

Tukums

8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Virsliga
Position 9
Points / played
25 / 34

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. BFC Daugavpils 2–0 TukumsVirsliga · UTC
  2. Tukums 1–1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga · UTC
  3. Tukums 1–1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga · UTC
  4. Tukums 0–1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga · UTC
  5. BFC Daugavpils 1–2 TukumsVirsliga · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Nov 2026 01:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1515945
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
d0b8b5e473943993ce4fa05fc0952763f70b5c3db410ad8f4ea1cde7276b937c