Canadian Premier League · 25 Oct 2026

HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du QuebecMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC.

Published 25 Oct 2026 · 05:40 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–4 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 27 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC. Source synced 26 Oct 2026 20:08 UTC.

Result changes (1)

v1 · HT Initial source observation · 26 Oct 2026 12:10 UTC Source synced 25 Oct 2026 21:20 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC
v2 · FT · 3–4 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 27 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC Source synced 26 Oct 2026 20:08 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 24 Oct 2026 21:02 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 24 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 24 Oct 2026 21:02 UTC. Saved 25 Oct 2026 05:40 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 3.3
Without margin: 26.99%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -16.99 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.66
Without margin: 24.34%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +20.66 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 1.83
Without margin: 48.67%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -3.67 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.27%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

HFX Wanderers FC

DLWLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 8 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

HFX Wanderers FC scored 8 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

12 Oct 2026HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
26 Sep 2026HFX Wanderers FC 0–1 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
20 Sep 2026HFX Wanderers FC 4–1 York UnitedCanadian Premier League · UTC
07 Sep 2026HFX Wanderers FC 1–3 Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
22 Aug 2026HFX Wanderers FC 1–0 Vancouver FCCanadian Premier League · UTC

Away matches

Supra du Quebec

WLWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 6 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Supra du Quebec scored 6 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

07 Oct 2026York United 1–2 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC
26 Sep 2026Cavalry FC 6–0 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC
20 Sep 2026Atlético Ottawa 0–2 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC
15 Sep 2026Forge 1–0 Supra du QuebecCanadian Championship · UTC
06 Sep 2026Vancouver FC 3–2 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

HFX Wanderers FC

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 5.10 / 4.72
xG per match, for / against: 2.55 / 2.36
Goals on this same sample: 6 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

12 Oct 2026 HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC xG for / against HFX Wanderers FC: 1.11 / 1.67 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 02:24 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 02:24 UTC.
20 Sep 2026 HFX Wanderers FC vs York United xG for / against HFX Wanderers FC: 3.99 / 3.05 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 06:54 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 06:54 UTC.

Away matches

Supra du Quebec

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 1.66 / 3.24
xG per match, for / against: 1.66 / 3.24
Goals on this same sample: 2 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

07 Oct 2026 York United vs Supra du Quebec xG for / against Supra du Quebec: 1.66 / 3.24 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 05:24 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 05:24 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

HFX Wanderers FC

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Supra du Quebec

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

HFX Wanderers FC

8.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Canadian Premier League: Position 6
Points / played: 28 / 27

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC.

Supra du Quebec

8.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 16 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Canadian Premier League: Position 5
Points / played: 35 / 27

Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

12 Sep 2026Supra du Quebec 0–2 HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
24 Jul 2026HFX Wanderers FC 2–3 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC
24 Apr 2026Supra du Quebec 2–1 HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 25 Oct 2026 05:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1517371
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 497490688c44209ac593ddc38fadbee8bf8e34c56b2d821d356f97b419e7a99a