Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.85
- Without margin
- 31.29%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -21.29 pp
Canadian Premier League · 25 Oct 2026
York United vs Atlético OttawaMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–1 · regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 27 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC. Source synced 26 Oct 2026 20:08 UTC.
Result changes (1)
- v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 26 Oct 2026 12:10 UTC Source synced 25 Oct 2026 21:20 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC
- v2 · FT · 2–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 27 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC Source synced 26 Oct 2026 20:08 UTC · source kickoff 25 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 24 Oct 2026 21:02 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 24 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 24 Oct 2026 21:02 UTC. Saved 25 Oct 2026 05:40 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.05
- Without margin
- 22.02%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +22.98 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 1.91
- Without margin
- 46.69%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -1.69 pp
Raw implied probability total: 112.14%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
York United
LWLWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 13 / 11
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 5/5 100%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
York United scored 13 and conceded 11 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- York United 1–2 Supra du QuebecCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 3–1 Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 3–4 Pacific FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 3–1 Vancouver FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 3–3 Pacific FCCanadian Premier League · UTC
Away matches
Atlético Ottawa
WWLLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 6 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Atlético Ottawa scored 6 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Pacific FC 0–2 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- HFX Wanderers FC 0–1 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- Forge 3–0 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- Cavalry FC 3–1 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- Supra du Quebec 1–2 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
York United
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 7.92 / 5.19
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.64 / 1.73
- Goals on this same sample
- 7 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- York United vs Supra du Quebec xG for / against York United: 3.24 / 1.66 Statistics synced: team 22 Oct 2026 05:24 UTC; opponent 22 Oct 2026 05:24 UTC.
- York United vs Cavalry FC xG for / against York United: 2.22 / 1.99 Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC.
- York United vs Pacific FC xG for / against York United: 2.46 / 1.54 Statistics synced: team 11 Sep 2026 00:18 UTC; opponent 11 Sep 2026 00:18 UTC.
Away matches
Atlético Ottawa
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 1.56 / 3.38
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.56 / 3.38
- Goals on this same sample
- 2 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa xG for / against Atlético Ottawa: 1.56 / 3.38 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 20:20 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 20:20 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
York United
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Atlético Ottawa
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
York United
8.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 16 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Canadian Premier League
- Position 7
- Points / played
- 27 / 27
Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC.
Atlético Ottawa
8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Canadian Premier League
- Position 3
- Points / played
- 43 / 27
Table source synced 25 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Atlético Ottawa 2–1 York UnitedCanadian Premier League · UTC
- Atlético Ottawa 1–1 York UnitedCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 4–1 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- York United 2–2 Atlético OttawaCanadian Premier League · UTC
- Atlético Ottawa 0–0 York UnitedCanadian Premier League · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 25 Oct 2026 05:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1517372
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 695064a16c3dd854b7532480f94b3fd67747e6d40b1213034180a1c51606d877