Esiliiga A · 18 Oct 2026

Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United IIMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 4–3 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · HT Initial source observation · 18 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC Source synced 18 Oct 2026 10:20 UTC · source kickoff 18 Oct 2026 09:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 4–3 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 19 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC · source kickoff 18 Oct 2026 09:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.500 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
50%
Draw
50%
Away win
0%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 23:47 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

1xBet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 17 Oct 2026 20:36 UTC; synced 17 Oct 2026 23:47 UTC. Saved 18 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.59
Without margin
57.77%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
-7.77 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.5
Without margin
20.41%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+29.59 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
4.21
Without margin
21.82%
Provider estimate
0.00%
Provider − market
-21.82 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.87%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Tartu Welco

WWLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
14 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Tartu Welco scored 14 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Tartu Welco 4–0 ElvaEsiliiga A · UTC
  2. Tartu Welco 3–0 Nõmme Kalju IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  3. Tartu Welco 1–3 ViimsiEsiliiga A · UTC
  4. Tartu Welco 4–2 FCI Levadia IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  5. Tartu Welco 2–1 Flora IIEsiliiga A · UTC

Away matches

Nõmme United II

WLLDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Nõmme United II scored 8 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Nõmme Kalju II 2–3 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  2. Maardu 2–1 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  3. Viimsi 4–1 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  4. FC Tallinn 1–1 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  5. FCI Levadia II 1–2 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Tartu Welco

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Nõmme United II

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Tartu Welco

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Nõmme United II

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Tartu Welco

2.7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Esiliiga A
Position 1
Points / played
68 / 32

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC.

Nõmme United II

8.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 09 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Esiliiga A
Position 8
Points / played
36 / 31

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Nõmme United II 2–1 Tartu WelcoEsiliiga A · UTC
  2. Tartu Welco 5–2 Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · UTC
  3. Nõmme United II 1–3 Tartu WelcoEsiliiga A · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1519665
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
4ede5057ef363ecf15be7f7b56232cdd50e3bb7909c5b003e289c4a12dccae27