Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 04 Oct 2026 00:01 UTC. Source synced 03 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 01 Oct 2026 01:22 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Botafogo SP
WLLLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Botafogo SP scored 6 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Botafogo SP 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 1–3 GoiasSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 1–3 NovorizontinoSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 1–2 CuiabaSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 1–1 CriciumaSerie B · UTC
Away matches
Vila Nova
DLDWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Vila Nova scored 3 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Avai 1–1 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
Athletic Club 5–0 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
Operario-PR 0–0 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
Atletico Goianiense 0–2 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
CRB 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Botafogo SP
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.70 / 1.06
xG per match, for / against
0.85 / 0.53
Goals on this same sample
2 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Botafogo SP vs CuiabaxG for / against Botafogo SP: 0.58 / 0.76
Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC.
Botafogo SP vs CriciumaxG for / against Botafogo SP: 1.12 / 0.30
Statistics synced: team 20 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC; opponent 20 Aug 2026 10:22 UTC.
Away matches
Vila Nova
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.30 / 0.82
xG per match, for / against
0.30 / 0.82
Goals on this same sample
2 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Atletico Goianiense vs Vila NovaxG for / against Vila Nova: 0.30 / 0.82
Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 00:19 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 00:19 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Botafogo SP
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Vila Nova
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Botafogo SP
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Sep 2026 22:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie B
Position 16
Points / played
35 / 30
Table source synced 03 Oct 2026 05:39 UTC.
Vila Nova
7.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 25 Sep 2026 23:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Serie B
Position 2
Points / played
54 / 30
Table source synced 03 Oct 2026 05:39 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SPSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
Vila Nova 2–0 Botafogo SPSerie B · UTC
Vila Nova 1–1 Botafogo SPSerie B · UTC
Botafogo SP 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 03 Oct 2026 05:51 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.