Serie B · 01 Nov 2026

Cuiaba vs São BernardoMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Awaiting confirmed result.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 31 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 20:01 UTC. Saved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.69
Without margin
54.48%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-44.48 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.55
Without margin
25.93%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+19.07 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
4.7
Without margin
19.59%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+25.41 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.62%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Cuiaba

WWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 1
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Cuiaba scored 10 and conceded 1 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B · UTC
  2. Cuiaba 3–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B · UTC
  3. Cuiaba 3–0 Athletic ClubSerie B · UTC
  4. Cuiaba 1–1 GoiasSerie B · UTC
  5. Cuiaba 1–0 Operario-PRSerie B · UTC

Away matches

São Bernardo

DLDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

São Bernardo scored 7 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Juventude 2–2 São BernardoSerie B · UTC
  2. Sport Recife 2–1 São BernardoSerie B · UTC
  3. Novorizontino 0–0 São BernardoSerie B · UTC
  4. America Mineiro 0–2 São BernardoSerie B · UTC
  5. Ponte Preta 0–2 São BernardoSerie B · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Cuiaba

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.45 / 0.06
xG per match, for / against
2.45 / 0.06
Goals on this same sample
2 / 0

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta xG for / against Cuiaba: 2.45 / 0.06 Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 08:26 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 08:26 UTC.

Away matches

São Bernardo

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.34 / 3.49
xG per match, for / against
1.67 / 1.75
Goals on this same sample
3 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Juventude vs São Bernardo xG for / against São Bernardo: 1.35 / 1.86 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:15 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:15 UTC.
  2. Sport Recife vs São Bernardo xG for / against São Bernardo: 1.99 / 1.63 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Cuiaba

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

São Bernardo

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Cuiaba

6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 26 Oct 2026 22:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie B
Position 13
Points / played
47 / 35

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 04:19 UTC.

São Bernardo

8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 24 Oct 2026 19:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Serie B
Position 11
Points / played
49 / 35

Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 04:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. São Bernardo 2–2 CuiabaSerie B · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Nov 2026 04:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1520953
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
7da7e951652db7eebafe8e2344b17daef65028e39e1babe2f92d12bd81a2dd3a