Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.66
- Without margin
- 36.42%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -26.42 pp
UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep 2026
Türkiye vs ItalyMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–4 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:19 UTC. Source synced 28 Sep 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 27 Sep 2026 18:57 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 27 Sep 2026 16:20 UTC; synced 27 Sep 2026 18:57 UTC. Saved 28 Sep 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.66
- Without margin
- 26.47%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +18.53 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 2.61
- Without margin
- 37.12%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +7.88 pp
Raw implied probability total: 103.23%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Türkiye
LWLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 8 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 1/5 20%
Türkiye scored 8 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Türkiye 0–1 FranceUEFA Nations League · UTC
- Türkiye 3–2 USAWorld Cup · UTC
- Türkiye 0–1 ParaguayWorld Cup · UTC
- Türkiye 4–0 FYR MacedoniaFriendlies · UTC
- Türkiye 1–0 RomaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe · UTC
Away matches
Italy
WWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 4 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 7 / 1
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 1/4 25%
- BTTS frequency
- 1/4 25%
Italy scored 7 and conceded 1 across these 4 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Greece 0–1 ItalyFriendlies · UTC
- Luxembourg 0–1 ItalyFriendlies · UTC
- Moldova 0–2 ItalyWorld Cup - Qualification Europe · UTC
- Estonia 1–3 ItalyWorld Cup - Qualification Europe · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Türkiye
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.10 / 0.32
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.10 / 0.32
- Goals on this same sample
- 0 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Türkiye vs Paraguay xG for / against Türkiye: 2.10 / 0.32 Statistics synced: team 20 Jun 2026 06:20 UTC; opponent 20 Jun 2026 06:20 UTC.
Away matches
Italy
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 4 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 5.57 / 0.99
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.79 / 0.50
- Goals on this same sample
- 5 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Moldova vs Italy xG for / against Italy: 2.92 / 0.22 Statistics synced: team 03 Apr 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 03 Apr 2026 15:47 UTC.
- Estonia vs Italy xG for / against Italy: 2.65 / 0.77 Statistics synced: team 03 Apr 2026 11:14 UTC; opponent 03 Apr 2026 11:14 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Team news: N/A. Not captured in this saved publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Türkiye
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 25 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Group 1
- Position 3
- Points / played
- 0 / 1
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 23:17 UTC.
Italy
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 25 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Group 1
- Position 4
- Points / played
- 0 / 1
Table source synced 27 Sep 2026 23:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Italy 0–0 TürkiyeFriendlies · UTC
- Türkiye 2–3 ItalyFriendlies · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 28 Sep 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1528905
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 455e854cbab882f5da40f899e9d1b44a78f2e55791042764342431c527a1e856