Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.77
- Without margin
- 54.82%
- Provider estimate
- 35.00%
- Provider − market
- -19.82 pp
UEFA Nations League · 15 Nov 2026
Spain vs EnglandMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 35%
- Draw
- 35%
- Away win
- 30%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 14 Nov 2026 20:02 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 14 Nov 2026 16:22 UTC; synced 14 Nov 2026 20:02 UTC. Saved 15 Nov 2026 02:50 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.15
- Without margin
- 23.38%
- Provider estimate
- 35.00%
- Provider − market
- +11.62 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 4.45
- Without margin
- 21.80%
- Provider estimate
- 30.00%
- Provider − market
- +8.20 pp
Raw implied probability total: 103.07%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Spain
WWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 16 / 3
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 5/5 100%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Spain scored 16 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Spain 3–1 Czech RepublicUEFA Nations League · UTC
- Spain 4–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League · UTC
- Spain 2–1 BelgiumWorld Cup · UTC
- Spain 3–0 AustriaWorld Cup · UTC
- Spain 4–0 Saudi ArabiaWorld Cup · UTC
Away matches
England
WWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 20 / 6
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
England scored 20 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Croatia 0–7 EnglandUEFA Nations League · UTC
- Czech Republic 0–2 EnglandUEFA Nations League · UTC
- France 4–6 EnglandWorld Cup · UTC
- Mexico 2–3 EnglandWorld Cup · UTC
- Panama 0–2 EnglandWorld Cup · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Spain
Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 11.42 / 1.97
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.28 / 0.39
- Goals on this same sample
- 16 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Spain vs Czech Republic xG for / against Spain: 1.99 / 0.49 Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 08:22 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 08:22 UTC.
- Spain vs Croatia xG for / against Spain: 1.81 / 0.47 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 14:46 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 14:46 UTC.
- Spain vs Belgium xG for / against Spain: 2.04 / 0.38 Statistics synced: team 10 Jul 2026 21:14 UTC; opponent 10 Jul 2026 21:14 UTC.
- Spain vs Austria xG for / against Spain: 2.80 / 0.49 Statistics synced: team 02 Jul 2026 21:14 UTC; opponent 02 Jul 2026 21:14 UTC.
- Spain vs Saudi Arabia xG for / against Spain: 2.78 / 0.14 Statistics synced: team 21 Jun 2026 18:21 UTC; opponent 21 Jun 2026 18:21 UTC.
Away matches
England
Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 13.53 / 7.02
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.71 / 1.40
- Goals on this same sample
- 20 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Croatia vs England xG for / against England: 6.43 / 1.39 Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC.
- Czech Republic vs England xG for / against England: 1.48 / 0.32 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 14:46 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 14:46 UTC.
- France vs England xG for / against England: 2.58 / 2.87 Statistics synced: team 18 Jul 2026 23:14 UTC; opponent 18 Jul 2026 23:14 UTC.
- Mexico vs England xG for / against England: 1.55 / 1.87 Statistics synced: team 06 Jul 2026 03:13 UTC; opponent 06 Jul 2026 03:13 UTC.
- Panama vs England xG for / against England: 1.49 / 0.57 Statistics synced: team 28 Jun 2026 00:19 UTC; opponent 28 Jun 2026 00:19 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Spain
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
England
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Spain
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 12 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- League A - Group C
- Position 1
- Points / played
- 15 / 5
Table source synced 15 Nov 2026 02:23 UTC.
England
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 12 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- League A - Group C
- Position 2
- Points / played
- 12 / 5
Table source synced 15 Nov 2026 02:23 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- England 2–3 SpainUEFA Nations League · UTC
- Spain 2–1 EnglandEuro Championship · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Nov 2026 02:50 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1528984
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- b042c1c3fb97402c7ed22da33b1db95f7c3a2321c594085ab88c379f220fe51e