Second League - Group 2 · 11 Oct 2026

Spartak Moscow 2 vs Zvezda St. PetersburgMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–3 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 15:10 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 15:09 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 22:02 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Dafabet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 10 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 10 Oct 2026 22:02 UTC. Saved 11 Oct 2026 01:40 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.93
Without margin
47.11%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-2.11 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.65
Without margin
24.91%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+20.09 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.25
Without margin
27.98%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-17.98 pp

Raw implied probability total: 109.98%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Spartak Moscow 2

LDDWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
5 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Spartak Moscow 2 scored 5 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Spartak Moscow 2 2–3 Baltika IISecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  2. Spartak Moscow 2 1–1 Chertanovo MoscowSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  3. Spartak Moscow 2 0–0 Dinamo St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  4. Spartak Moscow 2 2–1 TverSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  5. Spartak Moscow 2 0–2 Luki-EnergiyaSecond League - Group 2 · UTC

Away matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg

LWLDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Zvezda St. Petersburg scored 8 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Iskra Smolensk 3–1 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  2. Luki-Energiya 0–1 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  3. Baltika II 4–3 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  4. Chertanovo Moscow 1–1 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  5. Cherepovets 0–2 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Spartak Moscow 2

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Spartak Moscow 2

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Zvezda St. Petersburg

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Spartak Moscow 2

21 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

West
Position 12
Points / played
23 / 21

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 01:31 UTC.

Zvezda St. Petersburg

9.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 11:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

West
Position 10
Points / played
24 / 20

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 01:31 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–3 Spartak Moscow 2Second League - Group 2 · UTC
  2. Spartak Moscow 2 1–1 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC
  3. Zvezda St. Petersburg 3–0 Spartak Moscow 2Second League - Group 2 · UTC
  4. Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–4 Spartak Moscow 2Second League - Group 2 · UTC
  5. Spartak Moscow 2 6–0 Zvezda St. PetersburgSecond League - Group 2 · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 01:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1536489
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
f5aca3dd7307408e3e964780f1a8be8f1a88343854a9e1418a839ca81a5d8fb8