Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 5–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 02:41 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 12:02 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Saturn Ramenskoye
LWWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Saturn Ramenskoye scored 6 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Saturn Ramenskoye 0–2 StroginoSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Saturn Ramenskoye 1–0 SKA Khabarovsk IISecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Saturn Ramenskoye 4–2 ShumbratSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Saturn Ramenskoye 1–0 Metallurg LipetskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Saturn Ramenskoye 0–3 Volna NizhegorodskayaSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Away matches
Avangard Kursk
LDLLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
5 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Avangard Kursk scored 5 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Ryazan 4–0 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Kvant 1–1 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Orel 3–2 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Metallurg Lipetsk 2–1 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Arsenal Tula II 1–1 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Saturn Ramenskoye
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Avangard Kursk
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Saturn Ramenskoye
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Avangard Kursk
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Saturn Ramenskoye
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 11:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Central
Position 4
Points / played
40 / 22
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:32 UTC.
Avangard Kursk
8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Central
Position 8
Points / played
30 / 22
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:32 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Avangard Kursk 6–3 Saturn RamenskoyeSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Saturn Ramenskoye 2–4 Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Avangard Kursk 3–0 Saturn RamenskoyeSecond League - Group 3 · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.