Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 15:21 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 15:19 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
DWWDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored 11 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL · UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 HNK GoricaHNL · UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4–0 Sturm Graz IIFriendlies Clubs · UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 KarpatyFriendlies Clubs · UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 Epitsentr DunayivtsiFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
NK Varazdin
DWLWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
NK Varazdin scored 11 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
HNK Gorica 2–2 NK VarazdinHNL · UTC
Zagora 0–4 NK VarazdinCup · UTC
Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL · UTC
NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK VarazdinHNL · UTC
FK Jablonec 2–0 NK VarazdinUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.13 / 1.52
xG per match, for / against
1.13 / 1.52
Goals on this same sample
3 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK GoricaxG for / against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 1.13 / 1.52
Statistics synced: team 08 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC; opponent 08 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC.
Away matches
NK Varazdin
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
4.40 / 1.80
xG per match, for / against
1.47 / 0.60
Goals on this same sample
7 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
HNK Gorica vs NK VarazdinxG for / against NK Varazdin: 1.55 / 0.85
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 09:59 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 09:59 UTC.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NK VarazdinxG for / against NK Varazdin: 0.35 / 0.40
Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC.
NK Slaven Belupo vs NK VarazdinxG for / against NK Varazdin: 2.50 / 0.55
Statistics synced: team 09 Aug 2026 18:32 UTC; opponent 09 Aug 2026 18:32 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
NK Varazdin
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
20.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
HNL
Position 7
Points / played
7 / 8
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 01:20 UTC.
NK Varazdin
21.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
HNL
Position 4
Points / played
15 / 8
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 01:20 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 01:40 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.