HNL · 26 Oct 2026

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk SplitMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–2 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 27 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC. Source synced 26 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Draw. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 26 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 26 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 26 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Saved 26 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
4.1
Without margin
22.67%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-12.67 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.84
Without margin
24.21%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+20.79 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.75
Without margin
53.12%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-8.12 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.57%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Istra 1961

LWDWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Istra 1961 scored 10 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Istra 1961 0–1 HNK GoricaHNL · UTC
  2. Istra 1961 3–2 RudesHNL · UTC
  3. Istra 1961 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL · UTC
  4. Istra 1961 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL · UTC
  5. Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL · UTC

Away matches

HNK Hajduk Split

WLWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

HNK Hajduk Split scored 9 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
  2. HNK Rijeka 3–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  3. Vardarac 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitCup · UTC
  4. Rudes 0–4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  5. HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Istra 1961

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.43 / 2.38
xG per match, for / against
1.81 / 0.79
Goals on this same sample
5 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica xG for / against Istra 1961: 1.21 / 0.61 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 08:20 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 08:20 UTC.
  2. Istra 1961 vs Rudes xG for / against Istra 1961: 1.87 / 0.84 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 06:29 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 06:29 UTC.
  3. Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb xG for / against Istra 1961: 2.35 / 0.93 Statistics synced: team 02 Aug 2026 08:21 UTC; opponent 02 Aug 2026 08:21 UTC.

Away matches

HNK Hajduk Split

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.78 / 4.08
xG per match, for / against
1.26 / 1.36
Goals on this same sample
3 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.30 / 1.35 Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC.
  2. HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.28 / 1.46 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC.
  3. HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.20 / 1.27 Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Istra 1961

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

HNK Hajduk Split

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Istra 1961

9.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

HNL
Position 7
Points / played
12 / 10

Table source synced 26 Oct 2026 00:19 UTC.

HNK Hajduk Split

3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 22 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

HNL
Position 1
Points / played
22 / 10

Table source synced 26 Oct 2026 00:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Istra 1961HNL · UTC
  2. Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  3. HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL · UTC
  4. Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  5. HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 26 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1548549
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
778bd2f7550f58d9b31e54cff5752bf4ceeeda0abae65cb8e08fe3f000b111ad