Primera A · 30 Oct 2026

Atletico Nacional vs Santa FeMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 30 Oct 2026 09:21 UTC. Source synced 30 Oct 2026 09:19 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 30 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 29 Oct 2026 20:04 UTC; synced 30 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Saved 30 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.46
Without margin
63.06%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-18.06 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.4
Without margin
20.93%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+24.07 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
5.75
Without margin
16.01%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-6.01 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.61%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Atletico Nacional

WWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Atletico Nacional scored 11 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC
  2. Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
  3. Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia · UTC
  4. Atletico Nacional 0–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A · UTC
  5. Atletico Nacional 3–1 JuniorPrimera A · UTC

Away matches

Santa Fe

LWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Santa Fe scored 8 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Llaneros 1–0 Santa FePrimera A · UTC
  2. Independiente Medellin 0–1 Santa FePrimera A · UTC
  3. Deportivo Pereira 1–2 Santa FePrimera A · UTC
  4. Union Magdalena 1–1 Santa FeCopa Colombia · UTC
  5. Alianza Valledupar 1–4 Santa FePrimera A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Atletico Nacional

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.75 / 1.73
xG per match, for / against
1.38 / 0.87
Goals on this same sample
5 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.69 / 1.58 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC.
  2. Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto xG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.06 / 0.15 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 22:45 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 22:45 UTC.

Away matches

Santa Fe

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.58 / 2.64
xG per match, for / against
1.29 / 1.32
Goals on this same sample
4 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Llaneros vs Santa Fe xG for / against Santa Fe: 1.34 / 1.78 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC.
  2. Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe xG for / against Santa Fe: 1.24 / 0.86 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 12:46 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 12:46 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Atletico Nacional

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Santa Fe

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Atletico Nacional

4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 23:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura
Position 1
Points / played
40 / 19

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Clausura
Position 1
Points / played
32 / 15

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Santa Fe

3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 27 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura
Position 7
Points / played
29 / 19

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Clausura
Position 4
Points / played
28 / 15

Table source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
  2. Atletico Nacional 1–1 Santa FePrimera A · UTC
  3. Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
  4. Atletico Nacional 1–2 Santa FePrimera A · UTC
  5. Santa Fe 2–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 30 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1549724
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
a12c068a1aab98eed0583d6b78d1dd18154d8dce5808165fc9bc7288ae4be4c8