Primera A · 29 Oct 2026

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente MedellinMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 · 01:05 UTC.

Published 29 Oct 2026 · 00:11 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 29 Oct 2026 09:31 UTC. Source synced 29 Oct 2026 09:29 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.635 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 35%
Draw: 35%
Away win: 30%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 29 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 29 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 29 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Saved 29 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 2.85
Without margin: 32.29%
Provider estimate: 35.00%
Provider − market: +2.71 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.15
Without margin: 29.21%
Provider estimate: 35.00%
Provider − market: +5.79 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 2.39
Without margin: 38.50%
Provider estimate: 30.00%
Provider − market: -8.50 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.67%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Internacional de Bogota

WWDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 12 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 5/5 100%

Internacional de Bogota scored 12 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

20 Oct 2026Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
15 Oct 2026Internacional de Bogota 4–1 LlanerosCopa Colombia · UTC
04 Oct 2026Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A · UTC
17 Sep 2026Internacional de Bogota 2–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
12 Sep 2026Internacional de Bogota 3–2 LlanerosPrimera A · UTC

Away matches

Independiente Medellin

LLWLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 7 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 4/5 80%

Independiente Medellin scored 7 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

25 Oct 2026Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC
15 Oct 2026Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia · UTC
12 Oct 2026America de Cali 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC
27 Sep 2026Junior 2–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC
17 Sep 2026Bucaramanga 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Internacional de Bogota

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 0.94 / 3.27
xG per match, for / against: 0.47 / 1.64
Goals on this same sample: 4 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

20 Oct 2026 Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC xG for / against Internacional de Bogota: 0.41 / 1.79 Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 23:45 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 23:45 UTC.
17 Sep 2026 Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional xG for / against Internacional de Bogota: 0.53 / 1.48 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 16:56 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 16:56 UTC.

Away matches

Independiente Medellin

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 2.52 / 2.29
xG per match, for / against: 1.26 / 1.15
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

25 Oct 2026 Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin xG for / against Independiente Medellin: 1.58 / 1.69 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 00:04 UTC.
12 Oct 2026 America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin xG for / against Independiente Medellin: 0.94 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 22:55 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 22:55 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Internacional de Bogota

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Independiente Medellin

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Internacional de Bogota

3.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 21:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura: Position 8
Points / played: 28 / 19

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.

Clausura: Position 13
Points / played: 17 / 16

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.

Independiente Medellin

3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 23:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura: Position 11
Points / played: 26 / 19

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.

Clausura: Position 7
Points / played: 23 / 15

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

07 Feb 2026Independiente Medellin 1–2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A · UTC
23 Aug 2025Independiente Medellin 3–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A · UTC
09 Mar 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC
06 Oct 2024Independiente Medellin 0–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A · UTC
23 Mar 2024Internacional de Bogota 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 29 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1549728
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 4a97a5822730e6a8db9ce1fd6eb6dd747b91e4be0b44babec06c1f226b41d59d