Primera A · 28 Oct 2026

Once Caldas vs Alianza ValleduparMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC.

Published 28 Oct 2026 · 01:51 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 30 Oct 2026 09:21 UTC. Source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:08 UTC.

Result changes (1)

v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 29 Oct 2026 09:31 UTC Source synced 29 Oct 2026 00:59 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC
v2 · FT · 1–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 30 Oct 2026 09:21 UTC Source synced 29 Oct 2026 23:08 UTC · source kickoff 28 Oct 2026 23:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 45%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 10%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 28 Oct 2026 01:45 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 28 Oct 2026 00:05 UTC; synced 28 Oct 2026 01:45 UTC. Saved 28 Oct 2026 01:51 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.43
Without margin: 64.38%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -19.38 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 4.15
Without margin: 22.18%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +22.82 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 6.85
Without margin: 13.44%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -3.44 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.62%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Once Caldas

DWLLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency: 2/5 40%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Once Caldas scored 5 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

25 Oct 2026Once Caldas 1–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A · UTC
10 Oct 2026Once Caldas 1–0 LlanerosPrimera A · UTC
26 Sep 2026Once Caldas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A · UTC
13 Sep 2026Once Caldas 1–2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A · UTC
20 Aug 2026Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia · UTC

Away matches

Alianza Valledupar

WLWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 6 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Alianza Valledupar scored 6 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

20 Oct 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC
03 Oct 2026Deportivo Cali 3–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC
27 Sep 2026Jaguares 1–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC
16 Sep 2026Chico 1–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC
03 Sep 2026America de Cali 3–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Once Caldas

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 3.16 / 2.28
xG per match, for / against: 1.05 / 0.76
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

25 Oct 2026 Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira xG for / against Once Caldas: 2.07 / 0.39 Statistics synced: team 26 Oct 2026 17:05 UTC; opponent 26 Oct 2026 17:05 UTC.
10 Oct 2026 Once Caldas vs Llaneros xG for / against Once Caldas: 0.70 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 24 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC; opponent 24 Oct 2026 04:15 UTC.
13 Sep 2026 Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali xG for / against Once Caldas: 0.39 / 0.34 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 09:29 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 09:29 UTC.

Away matches

Alianza Valledupar

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 1.66 / 1.83
xG per match, for / against: 0.83 / 0.92
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

20 Oct 2026 Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar xG for / against Alianza Valledupar: 0.94 / 0.92 Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 01:16 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 01:16 UTC.
27 Sep 2026 Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar xG for / against Alianza Valledupar: 0.72 / 0.91 Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 19:15 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 19:15 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Once Caldas

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Alianza Valledupar

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Once Caldas

3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura: Position 5
Points / played: 33 / 19

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Clausura: Position 9
Points / played: 21 / 16

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Alianza Valledupar

3.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 21:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Apertura: Position 17
Points / played: 17 / 19

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Clausura: Position 12
Points / played: 18 / 15

Table source synced 28 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 28 Oct 2026 01:51 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1549731
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 9df2d14fce71fc29fe7b8736aef00cbc93d8778cb7e973a93434bb34c9603c32