Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo PastoMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 3–0· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 06:30 UTC. Source synced 23 Oct 2026 06:29 UTC.
Source kickoff changed to 23 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC. The original publication retains its scheduled kickoff.
Result changes (1)
v1 · NS
Initial source observation · 11 Oct 2026 07:00 UTC
Source synced 11 Oct 2026 06:59 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 01:15 UTC
v2 · FT · 3–0
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 23 Oct 2026 06:30 UTC
Source synced 23 Oct 2026 06:29 UTC · source kickoff 23 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 11 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Atletico Nacional
DWDDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Atletico Nacional scored 7 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Atletico Nacional 0–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 3–1 JuniorPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 1–1 Chapecoense-scFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Atletico Nacional 1–1 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 2–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A · UTC
Away matches
Deportivo Pasto
LWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Deportivo Pasto scored 4 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Chico 3–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
America de Cali 0–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
Cucuta 2–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
Millonarios 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Atletico Nacional
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.37 / 0.73
xG per match, for / against
1.37 / 0.73
Goals on this same sample
2 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Atletico Nacional vs Águilas DoradasxG for / against Atletico Nacional: 1.37 / 0.73
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 09:10 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 09:10 UTC.
Away matches
Deportivo Pasto
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.53 / 2.73
xG per match, for / against
0.51 / 0.91
Goals on this same sample
2 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
America de Cali vs Deportivo PastoxG for / against Deportivo Pasto: 0.65 / 0.38
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 10:30 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 10:30 UTC.
Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo PastoxG for / against Deportivo Pasto: 0.71 / 0.59
Statistics synced: team 28 Aug 2026 03:22 UTC; opponent 28 Aug 2026 03:22 UTC.
Millonarios vs Deportivo PastoxG for / against Deportivo Pasto: 0.17 / 1.76
Statistics synced: team 05 Aug 2026 03:23 UTC; opponent 05 Aug 2026 03:23 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Atletico Nacional
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Deportivo Pasto
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Atletico Nacional
2.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 08 Oct 2026 23:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Apertura
Position 1
Points / played
40 / 19
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 23:22 UTC.
Clausura
Position 3
Points / played
23 / 11
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 23:22 UTC.
Deportivo Pasto
6.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Apertura
Position 3
Points / played
34 / 19
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 23:22 UTC.
Clausura
Position 18
Points / played
9 / 12
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 23:22 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
Deportivo Pasto 2–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A · UTC
Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.