Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 09 Oct 2026 04:40 UTC. Source synced 09 Oct 2026 04:39 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Draw.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 09 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Fortaleza FC
DLLLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Fortaleza FC scored 7 and conceded 10 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Fortaleza FC 2–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 1–4 JuniorPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 1–2 Once CaldasPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 2–0 CucutaPrimera A · UTC
Away matches
Millonarios
DDWDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%
Millonarios scored 8 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Independiente Medellin 2–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Atletico Nacional 1–1 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Cucuta 1–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Deportivo Pereira 1–1 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Santa Fe 3–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Fortaleza FC
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.79 / 5.45
xG per match, for / against
0.70 / 1.36
Goals on this same sample
6 / 8
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Fortaleza FC vs Deportes TolimaxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.67 / 0.26
Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 08:05 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 08:05 UTC.
Fortaleza FC vs JuniorxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.77 / 1.82
Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 06:54 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 06:54 UTC.
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico NacionalxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.37 / 1.93
Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 22:20 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 22:20 UTC.
Fortaleza FC vs CucutaxG for / against Fortaleza FC: 0.98 / 1.44
Statistics synced: team 09 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC; opponent 09 Aug 2026 00:21 UTC.
Away matches
Millonarios
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.35 / 2.68
xG per match, for / against
1.18 / 1.34
Goals on this same sample
3 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Deportivo Pereira vs MillonariosxG for / against Millonarios: 1.05 / 1.66
Statistics synced: team 08 Sep 2026 00:19 UTC; opponent 08 Sep 2026 00:19 UTC.
Santa Fe vs MillonariosxG for / against Millonarios: 1.30 / 1.02
Statistics synced: team 03 Sep 2026 12:02 UTC; opponent 03 Sep 2026 12:02 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Fortaleza FC
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Millonarios
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Fortaleza FC
4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Apertura
Position 15
Points / played
22 / 19
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Clausura
Position 16
Points / played
10 / 12
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Millonarios
5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 23:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Apertura
Position 10
Points / played
26 / 19
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Clausura
Position 6
Points / played
21 / 13
Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Millonarios 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Millonarios 3–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 0–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Millonarios 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A · UTC
Fortaleza FC 1–2 MillonariosPrimera A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.