Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.61
- Without margin
- 57.18%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -12.18 pp
Liga MX · 08 Nov 2026
Toluca vs MonterreyMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 08 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 07 Nov 2026 20:48 UTC; synced 08 Nov 2026 00:08 UTC. Saved 08 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.25
- Without margin
- 21.66%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +23.34 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 4.35
- Without margin
- 21.16%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -11.16 pp
Raw implied probability total: 108.63%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Toluca
DDLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 12 / 8
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
Toluca scored 12 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Toluca 2–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 1–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 2–3 Santos LagunaLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 5–2 AtlasLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 2–0 MonterreyLeagues Cup · UTC
Away matches
Monterrey
WDLLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 2/5 40%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Monterrey scored 7 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Puebla 1–4 MonterreyLiga MX · UTC
- Club America 1–1 MonterreyLiga MX · UTC
- Atlante FC 4–2 MonterreyLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 2–0 MonterreyLeagues Cup · UTC
- Leon 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Toluca
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 4.84 / 2.84
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.42 / 1.42
- Goals on this same sample
- 3 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana xG for / against Toluca: 2.24 / 1.44 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC.
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis xG for / against Toluca: 2.60 / 1.40 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 10:56 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 10:56 UTC.
Away matches
Monterrey
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.37 / 2.70
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.19 / 1.35
- Goals on this same sample
- 5 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Puebla vs Monterrey xG for / against Monterrey: 1.99 / 1.45 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 14:15 UTC.
- Club America vs Monterrey xG for / against Monterrey: 0.38 / 1.25 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:45 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:45 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Toluca
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Monterrey
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Toluca
6.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 03:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Liga MX: Apertura
- Position 6
- Points / played
- 24 / 15
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 23:20 UTC.
Monterrey
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 01:05 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Liga MX: Apertura
- Position 9
- Points / played
- 21 / 14
Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 23:20 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Monterrey 2–1 TolucaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- Toluca 2–0 MonterreyLeagues Cup · UTC
- Monterrey 0–1 TolucaLiga MX · UTC
- Toluca 3–2 MonterreyLiga MX · UTC
- Monterrey 1–0 TolucaLiga MX · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 08 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1551034
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- a14d9cc9a793651e7a1a137c2cda56207f86ae958d777a49acfcbad16ac4a791