Eredivisie · 10 Oct 2026
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Full time: 1–1 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 10 Oct 2026 22:50 UTC. Source synced 10 Oct 2026 22:49 UTC.
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Ajax scored 15 and conceded 11 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Away matches
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
NEC Nijmegen scored 7 and conceded 13 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Away matches
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
21 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
20.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 14:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 10 Oct 2026 06:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology