Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–5· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 12 Oct 2026 01:21 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 1H
Initial source observation · 11 Oct 2026 15:30 UTC
Source synced 11 Oct 2026 15:30 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 14:45 UTC
v2 · FT · 1–5
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 12 Oct 2026 01:21 UTC
Source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC · source kickoff 11 Oct 2026 14:45 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Excelsior
LWLWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%
Excelsior scored 8 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Excelsior 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie · UTC
Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie · UTC
Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie · UTC
Excelsior 3–2 CambuurFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Excelsior 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie · UTC
Away matches
Groningen
DLWLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Groningen scored 7 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie · UTC
PSV Eindhoven 5–1 GroningenEredivisie · UTC
ADO Den Haag 1–4 GroningenEredivisie · UTC
Heracles 2–1 GroningenFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Excelsior
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.93 / 3.63
xG per match, for / against
0.46 / 1.82
Goals on this same sample
2 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Excelsior vs UtrechtxG for / against Excelsior: 0.61 / 1.42
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 02:30 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 02:30 UTC.
Excelsior vs PSV EindhovenxG for / against Excelsior: 0.32 / 2.21
Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 02:21 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 02:21 UTC.
Away matches
Groningen
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.35 / 2.71
xG per match, for / against
1.68 / 1.36
Goals on this same sample
4 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
ADO Den Haag vs GroningenxG for / against Groningen: 3.19 / 0.88
Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 12:18 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 12:18 UTC.
Ajax vs GroningenxG for / against Groningen: 0.16 / 1.83
Statistics synced: team 21 May 2026 18:56 UTC; opponent 21 May 2026 18:56 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Excelsior
Reported absences
N. NaujoksMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Groningen
Reported absences
N. BrandisMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
T. HernesMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
M. JengMissing Fixture · Leg Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
W. PrinsMissing Fixture · Inactive
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
T. MerceraMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
E. van der LaanMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
R. MetuMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 11 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Excelsior
21.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Eredivisie
Position 7
Points / played
11 / 7
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:14 UTC.
Groningen
22.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 18 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Eredivisie
Position 8
Points / played
11 / 7
Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 02:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 11 Oct 2026 03:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.