Eredivisie · 18 Oct 2026

Cambuur vs AZ AlkmaarMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–2 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 03:11 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Cambuur

WLLLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 15
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Cambuur scored 7 and conceded 15 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie · UTC
  2. Cambuur 1–4 TwenteEredivisie · UTC
  3. Cambuur 2–5 FeyenoordEredivisie · UTC
  4. Cambuur 0–4 ExcelsiorEredivisie · UTC
  5. Cambuur 1–2 Volos NFCFriendlies Clubs · UTC

Away matches

AZ Alkmaar

LLWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

AZ Alkmaar scored 9 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Feyenoord 2–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie · UTC
  2. Sunderland 1–0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League · UTC
  3. Heerenveen 2–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie · UTC
  4. Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie · UTC
  5. Utrecht 1–4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Cambuur

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.36 / 8.61
xG per match, for / against
1.34 / 2.15
Goals on this same sample
6 / 13

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen xG for / against Cambuur: 3.12 / 0.93 Statistics synced: team 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC; opponent 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC.
  2. Cambuur vs Twente xG for / against Cambuur: 0.47 / 1.76 Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC.
  3. Cambuur vs Feyenoord xG for / against Cambuur: 1.07 / 2.57 Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 10:20 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 10:20 UTC.
  4. Cambuur vs Excelsior xG for / against Cambuur: 0.70 / 3.35 Statistics synced: team 07 Aug 2026 20:18 UTC; opponent 07 Aug 2026 20:18 UTC.

Away matches

AZ Alkmaar

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
4.46 / 5.96
xG per match, for / against
1.49 / 1.99
Goals on this same sample
4 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 1.04 / 2.23 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
  2. Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 1.49 / 2.90 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC.
  3. Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 1.93 / 0.83 Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 10:20 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 10:20 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Cambuur

Reported absences

  • J. AmofaQuestionable · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • W. AsselmanMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • D. VisserMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

AZ Alkmaar

Reported absences

  • J. HornkampMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • S. ResinkMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.
  • K. SmitMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 18 Oct 2026 00:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Cambuur

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eredivisie
Position 13
Points / played
8 / 8

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:18 UTC.

AZ Alkmaar

2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Eredivisie
Position 2
Points / played
19 / 8

Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 01:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 01:50 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1552195
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
995c9da8048f2931b5934eaa14df006e3647835c808dcd417dd7341225f0e308