Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–5· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 03:11 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Groningen
WDLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Groningen scored 10 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Groningen 3–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie · UTC
Groningen 2–2 TwenteEredivisie · UTC
Groningen 2–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie · UTC
Groningen 2–1 UtrechtEredivisie · UTC
Groningen 1–0 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Ajax
LWWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
16 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Ajax scored 16 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AjaxEredivisie · UTC
Telstar 0–4 AjaxEredivisie · UTC
FC Sion 2–4 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
Shelbourne 2–2 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Groningen
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
4.41 / 3.58
xG per match, for / against
1.47 / 1.19
Goals on this same sample
7 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Groningen vs PEC ZwollexG for / against Groningen: 1.39 / 0.43
Statistics synced: team 02 Oct 2026 18:26 UTC; opponent 02 Oct 2026 18:26 UTC.
Groningen vs Fortuna SittardxG for / against Groningen: 1.47 / 0.88
Statistics synced: team 28 Aug 2026 20:21 UTC; opponent 28 Aug 2026 20:21 UTC.
Groningen vs UtrechtxG for / against Groningen: 1.55 / 2.27
Statistics synced: team 10 Aug 2026 14:22 UTC; opponent 10 Aug 2026 14:22 UTC.
Away matches
Ajax
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.21 / 3.12
xG per match, for / against
1.61 / 1.56
Goals on this same sample
5 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
HNK Hajduk Split vs AjaxxG for / against Ajax: 1.15 / 1.99
Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 16:55 UTC.
Telstar vs AjaxxG for / against Ajax: 2.06 / 1.13
Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Groningen
Reported absences
T. HernesMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
M. JengMissing Fixture · Leg Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
T. MerceraMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
E. van der LaanMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Ajax
Reported absences
D. BlindMissing Fixture · Back Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
K. DolbergMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
Caio HenriqueMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
S. BerghuisMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
A. GaaeiMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 18 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Groningen
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 14:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Eredivisie
Position 6
Points / played
14 / 8
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 03:18 UTC.
Ajax
2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Eredivisie
Position 5
Points / played
15 / 8
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 03:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 18 Oct 2026 03:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.